Ms Valley State University, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

747
FXUS64 KJAN 191728 AAC
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 920 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Rest of Today...A couple of disturbances aloft moving east across
the Mid-South region, will aid in sparking a few more showers and
storms across mainly northern portions of the forecast area
today. Elsewhere, only isolated convection will again be possible.
A strong storm or two capable of producing some gusty winds and
potentially some hail can`t be ruled out as some pretty steep mid-
level lapse rates exist, 6-7C/km, with vertical totals around 31.
However, wind shear remains unfavorable and with dew points
mixing into the lower 60s, instability levels aren`t exactly
impressive. As a result, confidence in any severe threat currently
remains pretty low. That said, the better potential for an
isolated strong storm currently looks to reside across the
northwest Delta region late this afternoon. Outside of that, look
for another hot afternoon as highs again top out in the mid 90s.
The ongoing forecast remains in good shape.  Other than tweaking
some hourly elements of it based on current trends, no major changes
will be made on this morning`s update. /19/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A shortwave disturbance moving into our region from the west today
will provide some lift to help showers and thunderstorms develop -
even if isolated for most of our area. Moisture values are
sufficient enough (PW around 1.5 inches) to support pop up
convection, so do not see any reason why across-the-board slight
chance POPs aren`t warranted. At least some degree of organization
is possible in proximity to the shortwave axis, so POPs are a
little higher in the ArkLaMiss Delta region this afternoon and
early evening.
Tomorrow the forecast area may be more suppressed below upper-
level shortwave ridging, but moisture values should still support
at least a few isolated showers or storms with daytime heating.
Ensured that POPs were included for the afternoon hours Saturday.
The current pattern will break down over the next few days,
resulting in a more progressive zonal flow pattern over the CONUS
through the next work week. A few low pressure systems moving
through the region and deeper moisture pooled in the Deep South
may actually yield some heavy rainfall potential before the week
is over. /NF/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR flight categories will overall prevail at area TAF sites over
the next 24 hours. Isolated convection will again be possible
across the area this afternoon, but isolated to scattered
convection will particularly be possible across the Delta region
later this afternoon into this evening as a weak disturbance aloft
moves east across the Mid-South region. If convection is indeed
observed on-site, namely at KGLH & KGWO, it could briefly reduce
both ceilings and visibilities to MVFR/IFR categories. Winds will
subside this evening, becoming calm to light and variable around 3
knots overnight. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  95  70  94 /  20  20   0  10
Meridian      68  95  68  94 /  20  20   0   0
Vicksburg     69  95  70  93 /  20  20   0  10
Hattiesburg   69  97  69  96 /  20  20   0  10
Natchez       68  94  70  93 /  20  20   0   0
Greenville    68  95  69  94 /  20  20   0  10
Greenwood     67  95  69  95 /  20  20   0  10
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
19

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion