Mulhall, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

592
FXUS64 KOUN 211144
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
644 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Scattered showers and storms through this morning with
   additional chances again this afternoon, specifically across
   southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. Severe storms
   are possible with damaging winds and large hail as the primary
   hazards.
- Storm chances continue Monday and Monday night with severe
   storms possible.
- Above-normal temperatures through the weekend before
   potentially cooling down to near-normal by the middle of next
   week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered showers and storms continue early Sunday morning with an
increasing low-level jet and another shortwave present in the mid-
level satellite water vapor imagery. Storms may become strong with
wind gusts up to 50-55 mph and small hail as the primary hazards.
However, a few storms could become severe with damaging wind gusts
up to 60 mph and quarter sized hail as the main threats.
Weak surface cyclogenesis will develop across West Texas later today
with warm southerly surface flow into north Texas and southern
Oklahoma. Temperatures will rise into the 90s across the
aforementioned area, while temperatures will remain slightly cooler
in the 80s across central and northern Oklahoma with continued
morning storms and subsequent cloud cover limiting heating. Storms
this afternoon will be contingent on the placement of an outflow
boundary from the morning convection. Models currently have the
boundary progged to be near the Red River with increasing chances
for storms along the boundary this afternoon. As temperatures rise,
instability will also increase (specifically across western north
Texas) ahead of the outflow with SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.
Additionally, increasing bulk shear to around 40-50 knots will
support severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
large hail. With increasing northwesterly steering flow aloft,
storms will move southeast and potentially grow upscale into a
cluster or line of storms through this evening with an increasing
low-level jet.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
By tonight, storms will be slowly coming to an end from west to east
with only some lingering rain and storm chances during the day
Monday across southeast and central Oklahoma. Warm southerly surface
winds Monday afternoon will bring the hottest day in the forecast
with highs in the upper 80s to near triple digits. With the next
incoming trough axis, westerly flow aloft will increase with a near
40 knot jet streak passing over Oklahoma Monday afternoon and
evening. A few diurnal storms may develop during the afternoon hours
and are capable of becoming strong to severe. However, the main show
for convection will be Monday night into Tuesday morning with the
cold front moving in from the northwest. The cold front is expected
to approach northwest Oklahoma around Midnight to 3 AM with storms
expected to grow upscale into an mesoscale convective system (MCS)
and push southeastward through the early morning hours Tuesday.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards, but
the potential for a brief tornado on the leading edge of the storms
remains low but non-zero. Storms will be moving fast enough to keep
initial flooding concerns low, but rainfall rates are still expected
to be moderate to heavy with the MCS.
The MCS will likely still be pushing through central and eastern
Oklahoma by Tuesday morning. The timing, speed and position of the
front and MCS will play a key role on temperatures Tuesday. However,
mostly "cooler" near-normal temperatures are expected but some model
guidance wants to stall the surface front, which could allow
temperatures to warm in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.
If the front pushes through into Texas, precipitation chances will
remain low Tuesday except across portions of northern Oklahoma with
the incoming upper low across Kansas. However, there are still some
model discrepancies with the exact timing of this system as well.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Models continue to come into line with a positively tilted trough by
the middle of next week. This will bring widespread "cooler" near-
normal temperatures. Exact timing of this system remains the
greatest uncertainty, which dictates the timing of the mid-level
front and arrival of the cooler airmass. Ensemble guidance generally
has a cooler airmass moving in around Wednesday and lingering
through next weekend. Precipitation chances drop following the
system with a potential ridge building in its wake.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this morning,
mainly across central and southwest portions of the area.
Redevelopment is then expected this afternoon into the evening
across mainly central and southeast parts of the area. Winds will
be generally light from the south, with erratic speed and
direction likely in vicinity of thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  84  67  88  72 /  50  30  20  50
Hobart OK         89  65  93  71 /  60  10  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  92  70  96  75 /  50  30  10  20
Gage OK           83  61  88  63 /  50   0   0  40
Ponca City OK     82  65  86  67 /  50  30  20  70
Durant OK         91  71  93  74 /  40  40  30  30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...08

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion