Murphy, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

604
FXUS66 KMFR 260356
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
856 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections...
.AVIATION...26/00Z TAFs...Gusty north winds over the coastal waters
and near the coast will continue into this evening, and increase
again for Friday afternoon and evening. This includes gusts to near
25 kt. at North Bend. Otherwise, conditions will be good with VFR
expected across the area through Friday evening. -DW
&&
.MARINE...Updated 815 PM PDT Thursday, September 25, 2025...Gusty
northerly winds continue to build steep seas across area waters,
with very steep and hazardous seas continuing south of Gold Beach.
Localized gale gusts are possible south of Gold Beach this evening.
Winds ease slightly early Friday morning, allowing seas north of
Cape Blanco to improve to below advisory conditions. Steep seas
south of Cape Blanco and very steep seas south of Gold Beach
continue into early Saturday morning. Northwest swell starts to
increase on Saturday morning, but decreasing winds limit steep seas
to waters south of Port Orford from early Saturday morning through
the afternoon.
Seas look to remain below advisory level from Saturday afternoon
into Sunday afternoon. An approaching front will bring gusty
southerly winds, with steep to very steep and hazardous seas
possible across area waters to start next week. Continuing active
weather may support both increased swell and gusty southerly winds
into midweek. -TAD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 226 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025/
DISCUSSION...An upper level low is passing to our south this
afternoon, throwing some mid to high level clouds north into
Modoc, Lake, and Klamath counties. Otherwise, area skies are clear
in our little sliver of high pressure between that low and broad
cyclonic flow to the north. More sunny, dry and warm weather will
follow today through almost the entire weekend as high pressure
remains in place, with Saturday likely the warmest day for much of
the area.
A significant pattern change then occurs Sunday night into
Monday. On Sunday, the dominant flow will become more
southwesterly as a strong upper level trough develops over the
Gulf of Alaska. By late Sunday, the trough will dig south over
the northeastern Pacific, then send a cold front into the Pacific
Northwest Monday, followed by another front Tuesday into early
Wednesday as the trough axis passes onshore somewhere along the
Oregon or Washington coastline.
These fronts are likely to produce gusty south to southwest
winds, below normal temperatures, and has a very high chance of
providing a much needed wetting rain to the entire forecast area.
It will be breezy everywhere as these fronts pass, but wind
concerns will be concentrated along our typically wind-prone
areas: the coast, the Shasta Valley, the East Side, and higher
terrain, where wind gusts could peak up to 50 mph. Meanwhile, with
water vapor transport (IVT) values forecast to be quite healthy
(especially for this time of year) and snow levels remaining well
above pass levels, widespread rainfall is expected, with 0.50 to
1 inch of rain for most of the West Side, 0.25 to 0.5 inches over
the East Side, and up to 2 or even 3 inches possible along the
coast, the coastal mountains, and western Siskiyou County from
Sunday night through Tuesday night. Showers are then expected to
continue into midweek as the upper level trough passes overhead
and onshore flow persists.
This will be the first event of its type this season, and the
first significant front to pass through the region since early
May. As a result of this and the usual lower skill of model
guidance during seasonal transitions, confidence is lower than
normal regarding the strength and timing of the fronts and the
passage of the upper level trough. Also, with this being the first
significant wind and rain event, some additional concerns arise.
Summer-weakened trees could be more easily susceptible to damage,
blocked drainages could result in ponding of stormwater, and rain
could combine with oil/residue buildup on area roads, making them
slicker than expected.
Models suggest that high pressure will return late next week, with
the area drying out and temperatures warming back up to near
normal by Friday. However, those same models show continued
activity across the Pacific which could easily mean additional
systems are possible next weekend. -BPN
FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, September 25, 2025...
Warm and dry conditions continue across the area today and through
much of the upcoming weekend. A dry front moving over the area will
bring elevated winds, especially over terrain in northern California
and east of Cascades. Recoveries remain steady tonight. After
another warm and dry day on Friday, easterly flow over area peaks
and ridgelines may bring moderate to locally poor recoveries from
Friday night into early Saturday morning. Recoveries across the
Cascades and terrain in Siskiyou County remain in the 25-35% range.
With periods of gusty winds and periods of low RH values remaining
separate, fire concerns remain elevated and will be emphasized in
headlines. However, warning products are not currently necessary.
While Saturday remains warm and dry, recoveries into Sunday morning
increase. And approaching front will bring southerly winds across the
area, with gusty winds developing over east side terrain and into
southern Shasta Valley. Rain showers are expected to reach the
Oregon coast by Sunday evening, and widespread rain showers are
forecast through the start of next week. Gusty southerly winds look
to continue over area terrain and into the southern Shasta Valley
during this active pattern. -TAD
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Saturday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion