Myrtle Creek, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

776
FXUS66 KMFR 121831
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1131 AM PDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion Updated.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...Along the coast and into the Umpqua Valley,
MVFR ceilings will gradually clear between 18-21z. Then, expect
areas of IFR/LIFR to develop late this evening and overnight along
the coast and into the Coquille Valley. Models and guidance indicate
mainly VFR continuing through Saturday morning in the Umpqua Valley.
However there is a chance (25%) for IFR/MVFR ceilings early Saturday
morning, including at Roseburg. Elsewhere, inland expect mainly VFR.
However, there is a potential for a brief period of localized
IFR/LIFR in valley fog for areas east of the Cascades early Saturday
morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 629 AM PDT Fri Sep 12 2025/
DISCUSSION...The last few showers from the departing trough
occurred over the east side last night. With residual low level
moisture, this morning`s broad coverage of low clouds is expected
to have a rather slow, gradual dissipation, with clearing by the
afternoon. High pressure will build in today with the most
pronounced warming on the east side. Readings there will be
rising mainly to the 70s, about a dozen degrees warmer than
yesterday, but still generally a few degrees below normal.
Meantime, coastal highs will be seasonable and west side highs
will be near normal and trend a few degrees warmer than
yesterday. This trend will continue on Saturday, with a few to
several additional degrees of warming after a more typical early
morning of mainly coastal and Douglas County stratus.
The next cool and wet trough is expected to reach the coast by
the end of Saturday evening and track across our area through
Sunday afternoon. It will bring a chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. While amounts look to be highest from
around Cape Blanco northward and eastward (at around 0.25 to 0.50
inches), the latest data shows at least some slight chance
potential for a measureable amount across the area.
Beyond Sunday, meteogram guidance indicates that generally drier and
warmer conditions are expected during next week, with readings
again approaching normal on Monday, and modestly above normal for
the remainder of the week. NBM probabilistic data for early next
week shows an 80% for Medford to see a high above 90 degrees on
Tuesday, but that probability drops to ~50% through the rest of
the week. In general, daytime highs look to stay at or above
average, but avoid any hazardous thresholds.
MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Friday, September 12, 2025...Breezy
northerly winds are expected south of Cape Blanco through this
afternoon, but conditions should remain below advisory levels.
Northwest swell continues to build into the region and will persist
through the weekend. Total seas look to remain below advisory levels
until Sunday, when an approaching front could bring showers and
increased northwest swell. Additionally, a thermal trough may
support wind-driven steep seas Sunday afternoon into Monday evening.
FIRE WEATHER...Updated 300 AM PDT Friday, September 12, 2025...
Fire weather concerns include a slight chance of thunderstorms east
of the Coast Range Sunday afternoon, and a strong warming and drying
trend Monday into mid-week. Poor to moderate ridge top humidity
recovery and easterly winds are expected beginning Monday night,
with the most driest conditions likely during Tuesday night. Slight
improvement is forecast to follow. -DW
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion