Nacogdoches, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

878
FXUS64 KSHV 280425
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1125 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Look for dry weather to continue through much of the upcoming
   work week.
- Along with the dry forecast will be moderating temperatures
   through the upcoming work week as well.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
The key players to our very benign forecast will involve upper
ridging across across the Ohio Valley into the Ouachitas in
Arkansas and into East Texas and Louisiana with bookend upper
troughs, one across the Texas Hill Country and another across the
Southeast U.S. into the Tenn Valley.
By Tuesday, the above mentioned upper ridge axis does get squeezed
or nudged slightly eastward with the arrival of a longwave trough
which may become cutoff due to ridging locked up across the Ohio
Valley, at least through Tuesday. If there was any low level
moisture to speak of, such a weather pattern would suggest that
showers and thunderstorms would be in the forecast.
Unfortunately, this is the opposite case as our region should
remain dry with the lack of available moisture for the trough to
lift.
Likewise, the medium range progs are struggling with just what
this trough will do beyond the Wednesday timeframe. Some suggest
it will become absorbed with the trough across the Southeast Conus
which will then become elongated across the heart of our region
into Southeast Texas. We are beginning to see some moisture to
work with by late in the upcoming work week for maybe some small
pops, mainly across our eastern and northeast third. The NBM
remains dry through this timeframe however and will continue to
follow its lead.
Until then, enjoy these warm temperatures and the milder nights
while we have them.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Conditions will remain VFR through the period. Most of our
afternoon cu field has dissipated with some high cirrus hanging on
on Deep East Texas. Skies should stay mostly clear overnight with
calm/near calm winds. Another cu field should develop around
midday tomorrow with increasing winds: generally northeasterly at
around 7 kts. Areas east of I-49 should see slightly higher winds
compared to elsewhere, but nothing is looking too gusty at this
time. /57/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Spotter Activation is not expected at this time.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  89  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  60  89  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  59  86  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  62  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  58  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  63  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  60  87  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  61  89  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...57

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion