Natural Bridge, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

826
FXUS64 KBMX 232348
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
648 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2025
- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for much of Central
  Alabama Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
- Medium to high chance (40 to 70 percent) of greater than 1 inch of
  rain Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2025
Mostly fair weather cumulus was present across much of Central
Alabama early this afternoon, with an upper level shortwave
passing off to our north over the Ohio Valley region. Due to a
pocket of dry air aloft, very little convective development is
anticipated through this afternoon other than an isolated shower
or storm as far south as the I-20 corridor. To the north, more
scattered development will be possible along the U.S. 278 corridor
from Marion east to Cherokee County. Under plenty of sunshine, hot
temperatures are expected once again with highs in the lower 90s
with a few mid 90s not out of the question. An effective warm
front is expected to lift northward during the overnight hours
tonight, increasing low level moisture and potentially leading to
fog formation as indicated by high-res guidance members across
the U.S. 80 corridor, as far east as Montgomery. I`ve gone ahead
and added patchy fog to the forecast in those areas and will
watch satellite and observation trends overnight to determine
potential updates to the areal extent of the fog.
The hot and dry overall pattern that we`ve been stuck in for a
long period of time will finally change during the day on
Wednesday. A dynamic, closed upper level system will eject
eastward from the Rocky Mountain states, with a surface low
advertised to move into northern Arkansas by Wednesday afternoon.
A trailing cold front will stretch southwestward into northern
Louisiana and southeast Texas, with widespread shower and storm
formation out ahead of it. Much of the day Wednesday will remain
mostly dry across Central Alabama, except for far northwest counties
during the afternoon. Storms will eventually fire during the late
afternoon hours north of I-20 and west of I-65 ahead of the
approaching shortwave trough axis. With sufficient instability and
additional shear, some storms are expected to be on the strong
side with a few severe storms not out of the question. Isolated
damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards with these, along
with locally heavy rainfall as PWATs rise close to 2 inches.
Convective activity is forecast to be mostly diurnally-driven in
terms of strength with less overall coverage during the overnight
hours and into early Thursday morning. The front, now mostly
parallel to the mean flow may either stall or significantly slow
its eastward progression by Thursday afternoon. A mid to upper
level cut-off closed low is then progged to develop by forecast
guidance late in the day, with numerous to widespread showers and
storms developing once again. A potent 500mb vort max across the
northern Gulf Coast will provide good synoptic lift and additional
shear to support at least strong storms with a few isolated severe
storms across the eastern and southeastern half of Central
Alabama through late Thursday night.
56/GDG
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Monday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2025
Global guidance is coming into better agreement this afternoon
with the continued development of the cut-off, closed upper low
lingering across the Deep South through Sunday. Highest rain
chances will remain across the eastern and southeastern half of
the CWA as the low slowly pivots eastward during the day on
Friday. Saturday still appears mostly dry, but we could see
lingering wrap-around convective development which is quite
difficult to quantify 5 days out. I wouldn`t be surprised to see
PoPs increase with time as we get closer, especially east of I-65
through Saturday afternoon. Speaking of PoPs increasing, global
guidance now continues to indicate the cut-off low lingering over
the Deep South perhaps as long as next Tuesday. That would greatly
influence the overall forecast with higher PoPs and cooler daytime
temperatures. We`ll see if those trends hold up over the coming
days.
56/GDG
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2025
A VFR forecast is expected for this evening. There is a chance of
some patchy MVFR fog for TCL/MGM toward sunrise from the SW as low
level moisture increases. I have a tempo in for a couple of hours
to account for this. Mid/high clouds will increase through the
forecast ahead of our next system. I have a prob30 starting 20-21z
for TSRA BHM/TCL/EET. Chances are too low for convection before
the end of the TAF time for the others for now. Chances increase
Wed after sunset for all as system gets closer.
08
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mostly dry weather is forecast for central Alabama today, with
MinRH values expected to stay above 30 percent. An approaching
cold front will enhance rain chances to the area starting
Wednesday afternoon, but especially Wednesday night through
Thursday afternoon. A return to drier weather is forecast on
Saturday with perhaps a few lingering rain showers across east
Alabama.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  91  67  83 /  10  40  70  70
Anniston    70  91  70  81 /   0  20  60  80
Birmingham  72  93  70  83 /   0  40  70  80
Tuscaloosa  72  91  70  86 /   0  50  70  70
Calera      71  93  70  84 /   0  30  60  80
Auburn      69  91  70  83 /   0  10  20  80
Montgomery  70  94  71  83 /   0  20  30  80
Troy        68  92  70  85 /   0  10  20  80
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....56/GDG
AVIATION...08

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion