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Natural Bridge, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

794
FXUS64 KBMX 241128
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 628 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 614 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025

- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for much of Central Alabama this afternoon through Thursday afternoon.

- Medium to high chance (40 to 70 percent) of greater than 1 inch of rain through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 216 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025

Significant changes to the weather forthcoming over the next 24 to 36 hours, as large upper level trough becomes established across the eastern half of the CONUS, which helps push surface cold front through the southeast states. This will, in turn, bring fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms to central Alabama, giving us the first significant chance of rain in several weeks. SPC has maintained their Marginal Risk in both the Day 1 and Day 2 periods, and I see no reason to deviate from this. There`s going to be a decent amount of synoptic scale lift associated with the upper trough (and various shortwaves rotating around its base). But the models not named NAM suggest instability and lapse rates will not really be favorable for anything more than an isolated severe weather (damaging wind) threat.

The rain may take its time getting past I-20 at first, but I think by midnight to 3 AM tonight even the folks down in the I-85 corridor will get in on the convective action. While rainfall amounts (averaging roughly an inch, +/- a quarter inch) may be considered "significant" compared to recent meager amounts of the recent dry spell, it likely won`t be a "drought busting" rain either. As the saying goes, it takes more than a few dry days to get into a drought, and it takes more than one "rainy" weather system to end abnormally dry or drought conditions.

/61/

&&

.LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 216 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025

Some showers could linger in the southeast part of the CWA until Friday night. Beyond that, conditions are expected to be (at least briefly) dry once again through the end of the weekend. Early next week, the global models are still forecasting either a trough or a closed low somewhere between the Ohio River and the Gulf. And now we`ve got potential tropical systems that, while likely not having a direct impact on our weather, could still influence the upper air pattern well beyond their potential sphere of influence. Needless to say, forecast confidence in the long term should be considered much lower than usual.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025

A boundary will approach the area Thursday, bringing several waves of showers and storms to the area. Scattered activity is expected to start in the west and northwest through the late morning, expanding in coverage towards the southeast by evening. VCSH is in each TAF to account for the scattered nature of this convection, with a TEMPO to cover the most likely timing of more widespread activity. Only a TEMPO is included due to uncertainties in timing and coverage. There could very well be activity before or after timing mentioned in TAF due to short range model limitations. Overnight, low level moisture will be high with IFR to MVFR ceilings through the end of the TAF period.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An approaching cold front will bring enhanced rain chances to central Alabama starting this afternoon in the northwest, and spreading southeastward tonight and Thursday. A return to drier weather is forecast on Saturday with perhaps a few lingering rain showers across east Alabama.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 91 68 83 64 / 40 70 70 30 Anniston 91 70 82 65 / 30 60 80 30 Birmingham 91 70 83 66 / 50 70 70 20 Tuscaloosa 91 71 86 66 / 60 70 60 20 Calera 92 70 85 66 / 40 60 80 30 Auburn 92 71 83 68 / 10 30 80 50 Montgomery 94 71 84 67 / 20 40 80 50 Troy 92 70 84 67 / 10 20 80 60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...02 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...24

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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