Natural Bridge, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

794
FXUS64 KBMX 241128
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
628 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for much of Central
  Alabama this afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
- Medium to high chance (40 to 70 percent) of greater than 1 inch
  of rain through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
Significant changes to the weather forthcoming over the next 24 to
36 hours, as large upper level trough becomes established across
the eastern half of the CONUS, which helps push surface cold front
through the southeast states. This will, in turn, bring fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to central Alabama, giving us
the first significant chance of rain in several weeks. SPC has
maintained their Marginal Risk in both the Day 1 and Day 2
periods, and I see no reason to deviate from this. There`s going
to be a decent amount of synoptic scale lift associated with the
upper trough (and various shortwaves rotating around its base).
But the models not named NAM suggest instability and lapse rates
will not really be favorable for anything more than an isolated
severe weather (damaging wind) threat.
The rain may take its time getting past I-20 at first, but I think
by midnight to 3 AM tonight even the folks down in the I-85
corridor will get in on the convective action. While rainfall
amounts (averaging roughly an inch, +/- a quarter inch) may be
considered "significant" compared to recent meager amounts of the
recent dry spell, it likely won`t be a "drought busting" rain
either. As the saying goes, it takes more than a few dry days to
get into a drought, and it takes more than one "rainy" weather
system to end abnormally dry or drought conditions.
/61/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
Some showers could linger in the southeast part of the CWA until
Friday night. Beyond that, conditions are expected to be (at
least briefly) dry once again through the end of the weekend.
Early next week, the global models are still forecasting either a
trough or a closed low somewhere between the Ohio River and the
Gulf. And now we`ve got potential tropical systems that, while
likely not having a direct impact on our weather, could still
influence the upper air pattern well beyond their potential sphere
of influence. Needless to say, forecast confidence in the long
term should be considered much lower than usual.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
A boundary will approach the area Thursday, bringing several waves
of showers and storms to the area. Scattered activity is expected
to start in the west and northwest through the late morning,
expanding in coverage towards the southeast by evening. VCSH is in
each TAF to account for the scattered nature of this convection,
with a TEMPO to cover the most likely timing of more widespread
activity. Only a TEMPO is included due to uncertainties in
timing and coverage. There could very well be activity before or
after timing mentioned in TAF due to short range model
limitations. Overnight, low level moisture will be high with IFR
to MVFR ceilings through the end of the TAF period.
24
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An approaching cold front will bring enhanced rain chances to
central Alabama starting this afternoon in the northwest, and
spreading southeastward tonight and Thursday. A return to drier
weather is forecast on Saturday with perhaps a few lingering rain
showers across east Alabama.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  68  83  64 /  40  70  70  30
Anniston    91  70  82  65 /  30  60  80  30
Birmingham  91  70  83  66 /  50  70  70  20
Tuscaloosa  91  71  86  66 /  60  70  60  20
Calera      92  70  85  66 /  40  60  80  30
Auburn      92  71  83  68 /  10  30  80  50
Montgomery  94  71  84  67 /  20  40  80  50
Troy        92  70  84  67 /  10  20  80  60
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...24

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion