Nellis, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

726
FXUS61 KRLX 231835
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
235 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The chance for showers and thunderstorms continue through the
work week as multiple disturbances affect the area. Conditions
look to dry out some to end the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Tuesday...
Most shower activity is now in the northeastern quadrant of the
CWA, slowly continuing off to the north and east. Elsewhere,
mostly overcast skies are noted, with some patchy breaks in the
clouds, and overall more clouds than sun are expected over the
CWA the rest of today. Shower activity will remain possible, but
generally be subdued this afternoon and into the overnight
hours. We collaborated with some neighbors to put in patchy fog
across much of the area tonight. There is ample low-level
moisture with the recent rains, but we could see it become more
low stratus instead.
Heading into Wednesday, WPC does still have us under Slight risk
(level 2 of 4) for the excessive rainfall outlook, though
models still remain somewhat in flux on the timing and amount of
rainfall we can expect. One thing that does seem a bit
consistent across the near-term hi-res guidance is a signal of
one slug of moisture that moves across the CWA in the morning.
This is associated with the warm front pushing NE across the
area as the surface low tracks over Ohio. Afternoon and evening
showers are still expected across the area, but coverage and
thunderstorm potential are more of a question mark as the
morning activity may put a damper on further convection.
However, if we can get some recovery in instability for the PM
hours, SPC does have us under a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe weather, with damaging winds possible in any stronger
thunderstorm cells.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...
Activity is forecast to blossom again Wednesday evening into
Thursday, with showers and thunderstorms, as the cold front
slowly pushes through the CWA. A few could be on the stronger
side with some gusty winds as well as heavy rains. Depending on
how much rain the area gets during the day Wednesday, any
heavier storms could result in localized flooding issues,
especially if the front really moves slow and there is some
training action. As the front pushes through Thursday night into
Friday, some shower activity will continue, though likely a bit
reduced in coverage. Highs will be back down near normal, in the
mid to upper 70s at lower elevations.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...
Currently the forecast calls for the front to push towards the
coast, likely getting us some clearing skies and maybe a bump
in temperatures for the weekend into early next week. However,
there is some uncertainty on whether a cut-off upper low over
the Southeast US will wander close enough to us to trigger some
shower and thunderstorm activity over our area, or whether it
will stay just far enough to the south and east to keep activity
away from us. Currently this would be mainly a concern for the
eastern part of the CWA, where we have lingering chance POPs on
Saturday, and slight chance POPs Sunday and Monday. Where the
forecast to turn cloudier and rainier should the bulk of
guidance shift the activity more our way, the temperature
forecast would also need to be dropped.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...
We maintain a mix of low VFR and MVFR ceilings across the CWA to
start the TAF period. While we are expecting a gradual
improvement through the rest of the afternoon, with all sites
eventually going VFR, the abundance of low-level moisture will
make fog and low stratus fairly likely tonight, as evidenced by
forecast soundings. Even after sunrise tomorrow, low stratus may
be slow to lift given the expected higher level overcast, and
rain moving in from the southwest may also help to keep flight
categories reduced tomorrow morning, especially at HTS, CRW, and
PKB.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of restrictions due to
fog and/or low stratus tonight into Wednesday morning may vary
from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions are possible with heavier
showers or thunderstorms throughout the work week. IFR is also
possible at night with low stratus and/or fog.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion