New Haven, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

993
FXUS61 KOKX 220658
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
258 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in place through tonight. A cold front
approaches from the west on Tuesday, passing through into early
Wednesday and stalling to the south. Slow moving low pressure
impacts the region Thursday through Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Elongated surface ridge extends from off the New England coast,
down through the Northeast and Mid Atlantic today.
Any stratus to start erodes into mid morning, then mostly sunny
skies expected through the day as high pressure remains in
control. Temperatures jump up a few degrees from Sunday and
afternoon highs top out in the 70s throughout the area. With the
high centered off to the east, a light S flow persists through
the period, and helps nudge dew pts up into the 60s by tonight.
With this, won`t be as cool as previous nights either, overnight
lows in the upper 50s and 60s. Can`t rule out stratus developing
in some areas once again late.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Region lies on the western periphery of mid level ridging to
start Tuesday, though heights fall into the afternoon as a weak
shortwave translates east. With it, surface cold front
approaches through the day, likely instigating scattered areas
of convection out ahead of it. After a dry streak, plenty of
Gulf moisture streams in with PWATs climbing above 1.5 inches in
deep layer SW flow ahead of the boundary.
Ahead of the fropa, expect a seasonably warm day, with afternoon
highs into the upper 70s and lower 80s, or up to 10 degrees
above normal. It will also be noticeably more humid with the
moist air mass in place, and dew pts increase from the 50s on
Monday into the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday afternoon.
The ridging should help preclude any rain locally, at least outside
the LoHud Valley, through the morning hours. Modest instability
looks to develop into the afternoon, particularly NW of NYC, and
could help to produce a few thunderstorms with the convection,
but severe weather is not expected. The showers and possible
thunderstorms likely linger into the evening, if not the first
part of the night.
The front crosses the region late Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning, and flow veers N in response. Could see some lingering
wet weather midweek behind the front as it slows and stalls over
the Mid Atlantic, but the day isn`t a washout. Dependent on the
precip and cloud cover, another warm afternoon is expected,
highs generally into the mid to upper 70s. Approaching frontal
system well to the west reintroduces additional rain chances
Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:
* Slow move low pressure impacts the region.
* Chances of showers persist through much of the period with
  scattered thunderstorms also possible Thursday night into Friday.
  Timing and coverage of rainfall remains uncertain.
* Daytime highs will be near normal with nighttime lows slightly
  above normal with cloud cover and rain.
NBM was followed through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains off the New England and Mid Atlantic coast
through Monday night.
Generally VFR through the period, with a chance of MVFR ceilings in
stratus overnight into early Monday morning. There will be a chance
of MVFR ceilings again towards 06Z Tuesday, but more likely late
Monday night.
Light and variable to light NE winds overnight become southerly
Monday morning, remaining 10 kt or less. Winds become more S/SW
Monday evening, possibly light and variable at the outlying
terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance for MVFR ceilings toward Monday morning push.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Late Monday night: VFR, with MVFR or lower ceilings possible.
Tuesday-Tuedsay Night: MVFR possible with showers becoming likely
late day and at night. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms
late day and into the evening.
Wednesday - Friday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.  and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms possible
Thursday night into Friday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory hoisted on ocean waters from Moriches
Inlet to Montauk for 5 ft seas. The advisory may eventually
need to be expanded to remaining ocean waters tonight or Tuesday
as seas could build here more solidly toward 5 ft with long
period SE swells associated with Hurricane Gabrielle well
offshore. Elevated seas persist through Wednesday morning,
though could linger further into the day and an extension is
possible.
Sub advisory conditions then expected across all the forecast
waters Thursday through Friday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon
and evening could produce locally heavy downpours that result in
brief nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage locales. Best
chances of this occurrence are generally across NE NJ and the Lower
Hudson Valley but antecedent conditions have been notably dry,
and the risk for flash flooding is low.
Otherwise, no significant hydrological concerns expected through the
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip current development today along local
Atlantic beaches as a long period 3-5 ft SE swell arrives from
Hurricane Gabrielle well offshore, combined with 3 ft ESE wind wave.
The risk remains high on Tuesday due to the persistent 3-5 ft
SE swell.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion