140 FXUS64 KOHX 071726 AFDOHXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1223 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- Dry weather has returned to Middle TN and will stick around through at least the next 7 days.
- Gradual warming each day with highs pushing back into the mid 80s to lower 90s by mid week.
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.SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1141 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
After quite the foggy start to the day, northerly winds have picked up enough to help clear things out. Cold air advection continues today over Middle TN though the trough that has been over us for several days now is becoming less amplified as it shifts east. Have brought afternoon temperatures below NBM guidance again today to account for continued CAA, though today will be warmer than yesterday with much more sunlight present. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s this afternoon with a steady northerly wind. Dew points temperatures will progressively fall through today, too, making for a very pleasant and comfortable afternoon. Lows will drop into the upper 40s/low 50s tonight under clear skies. Areas of patchy fog will be possible again, though not as widespread as winds will stay near 5mph overnight. Monday looks great with temperatures warming into the low 80s and passing high clouds during the afternoon.
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.LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1141 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
The long term forecast looks hot and dry. Temperatures will eventually return to the upper 80s to low 90s by the end of this week. There will be a weak disturbance aloft that moves through Tuesday, but at this time, only an increase in cloud coverage looks to accompany it. A large ridge building across the western US will keep surface high pressure near or over us the whole week. As this feature continues its trek east, temperatures will gradually increase each day and keep rain and storm chances to nearly 0%. This is not good news for our growing drought conditions, and relief does not look to come around anytime soon. The CPC has our area outlined for continued below-normal precip beyond the 7-day forecast period.
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Some mid-level cumulus clouds are developing over Middle TN, but not expecting any showers or thunderstorms this afternoon with the dry air aloft. After drying conditions today, not expecting any widespread fog development tonight. Winds remain out of the NW to NE through the TAF period.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 52 81 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 48 81 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 47 75 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 49 80 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 48 76 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 47 74 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 48 79 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 49 81 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 48 80 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
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.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Cravens
NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion