Nezperce, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

709
FXUS66 KOTX 282248
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
348 PM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry today.
- Areas of haze and smoke impacting air quality across the
  region.
- Unsettled weather pattern this week with multiple chances for
  showers and a few thunderstorms.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures top out in the 70s to 80s today. A pattern change
commences Monday and continues through the week. Temperatures
will be cooling closer to normal with an increasing risk for
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Sunday: Increasing southerly flow ahead of a shortwave trough off
the Pacific coast and a building high pressure ridge in the central
US are bringing warm and dry conditions to the Inland Northwest
today. Temperatures will peak in the 70s and 80s with the coolest
conditions in central Washington in the vicinity of the Labor
Mountain and Lower Sugarloaf fires. Air quality in the central
Cascade valleys has been ranging from Unhealthy to Hazardous thanks
to the abundant smoke.
Sunday night through Friday: Clouds will increase overnight
tonight as a negatively tilting shortwave trough begins to
approach the Pacific coast. This will bring a small chance of
showers (15-25%) and perhaps even a rumble of thunder or two in
far eastern WA and north Idaho in the morning hours Monday.
Further west in near the Cascade crest Monday morning, a band of
more stable precip has potential to form but model solutions
are still showing uncertainty in the timing and amounts. Behind
this band, the shortwave will usher in cooler temperatures aloft
in central Washington bringing a small chance (15-20%) of
thunderstorms near the Cascade crest and as far east as Omak and
Wenatchee. Overall, the region has around a 10-30% chance to
see a wetting rain (greater than 0.10") from Monday morning to
Tuesday morning except very near the Cascade crest (70-95%
chance). The higher humidity and potential for light
precipitation will bring much needed relief for active
wildfires. Winds Monday will be breezy out of the south
especially in the Okanogan Valley and Waterville Plateau where
winds have a small potential to gust to 30 mph in the afternoon
(10-20% chance).
With the deeper main trough still of the coast Tuesday morning
through Thursday morning, chances for showers and thunderstorms,
cooler temperatures in the 60s and 70s, and breezy conditions will
continue through much of the week. To update the probabilities for
at least 0.25" from 5AM Monday through 5AM Thursday given in the
previous forecast discussion:
Columbia Basin: 10-30%  - No change
Palouse: 30-70%  - No change
Spokane area: 50%  - No change
Okanogan and Methow Valleys: 70-90% - Slight increase
Northern Mountains: 70-90%  - Slight increase
ID Panhandle: 70-90% - No change
East Slopes: 30% Wenatchee to Entiat, 40-80% Lower Sugarloaf,
70-90% Labor Mountain, and 100% close the Cascade crest
Saturday and Sunday: The pattern becomes a bit more unclear next
weekend as models show the potential for a deep low to form in the
Gulf of Alaska and quickly move east into southern British Columbia
bringing more breezy conditions. The operational European model
shows potential for wind gusts above 40 mph in parts of central
Washington Saturday so will be monitoring the trends closely. Below
normal temperatures in the 60s to low 70s will continue into next
weekend. /Butler
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: MVFR/VFR conditions continue through the period with
areas of haze and smoke. Main concern for restrictions to vis
will be Wenatchee, Chelan, Omak, and into the East Slopes
including Winthrop, Plain, and Lake Wenatchee. There is a small
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms from 12-18z Monday for
KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW-KLWS-KEAT (15-20% chance). Shower chances
increase to around 30-40% around 21z starting in the Cascades
(KEAT) and spreading into eastern WA after 00z Tue.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Low confidence for MVFR or worse conditions from wildfire smoke
at any terminals outside the East Slopes of the Cascades.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        52  75  52  69  51  68 /   0  10  50  40  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  54  77  54  68  51  67 /   0  10  60  60  40  60
Pullman        52  73  48  68  48  66 /   0  10  60  50  40  50
Lewiston       58  79  57  75  56  72 /   0  10  70  50  30  40
Colville       42  74  43  67  39  63 /   0  10  70  70  60  90
Sandpoint      48  74  49  65  46  62 /  10  20  70  70  60  80
Kellogg        59  76  55  65  52  64 /   0  20  80  80  50  70
Moses Lake     52  76  51  71  50  69 /   0  10  50  30  40  60
Wenatchee      59  75  54  69  52  67 /  10  40  60  30  60  60
Omak           53  74  52  70  49  66 /  10  30  70  40  50  70
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Chelan
     County-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-
     Western Chelan County.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion