Norris, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

127
FXUS65 KTFX 162247
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
447 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger through this
   evening across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.
- It will warm up and dry out Wednesday through Saturday with
   windy conditions on Sunday.
- Shower chances return on Sunday to Southwestern Montana.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 328 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
This afternoon the upper-level trough is over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring showers and
isolated thunderstorms to North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana with about seasonal averages for temperatures this
afternoon. The showers and thunderstorms will move out of North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana by this evening.
Wednesday morning in locations that receive rainfall today fog
will form. See the Forecast Confidence & Scenarios section for
details. On Wednesday an upper-level ridge builds in over North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring dry
weather with temperatures warming up across the area. On Thursday
the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central and
Southwestern Montana which will keep the dry and warm weather for
the area on Thursday.
On Friday there is a quick moving upper-level shortwave trough that
moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.
However, it will remain warm and mostly dry across the area. On
Saturday an upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana which will keep warm and dry weather for the
area. On Sunday an upper-level trough associated with a surface cold
front will move through North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. This will bring shower chances to Southwestern Montana with
windy and cooler conditons for North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. The strongest winds will be along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains. -IG
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
There is at least a 10 - 30% chance for fog Wednesday morning across
most of Southwestern Montana. On Sunday there is a 20 - 40% chance
for wind gusts of 55 mph along the plains adjacent to the Rocky
Mountain Front. On Sunday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a
60 - 90% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. On Sunday
across North-central Montana there is a 40 - 60% chance for wind
gusts of 45 mph or greater. -IG
&&
.AVIATION...
17/00Z TAF Period
Most scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish and
end by 17/04Z. This will be followed by overnight partial clearing
and patchy fog development between 17/09 and 17/16Z. The central and
southwest valleys (KBZN, KHLN, and KWYS) will be most susceptible to
impacts, though the latest probabilities for visibility falling
below 3 sm are currently running less than 30%. - RCG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  77  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  44  77  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  47  77  47  80 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  42  72  42  77 /  30   0   0   0
WYS  31  67  29  71 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  39  70  40  76 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  47  76  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  46  72  45  74 /  40   0   0   0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion