Notasulga, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

516
FXUS64 KBMX 211118
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
618 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2025
Largely zonal upper level flow is forecast to continue across the
southeast states in the short term. Within that longwave pattern,
a shortwave trough is forecast to zip across the area today. As
conditions warm up this afternoon and instability increases, we do
expect a slight increase in convective coverage compared to the
previous several days. Will continue to go with a somewhat
broadbrushed 30 percent POP for most areas this afternoon. But
wouldn`t be surprised if there are several county-sized pockets
of greater thunderstorm coverage (50 percent or more?).
/61/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2025
Main feature in the long term continues to be an upper level
trough that is forecast to dig into the eastern CONUS the middle
to end of the upcoming week. Global models are still having a
difficult time resolving timing and strength/shape differences in
this trough, but I think it is pretty safe to say that a
significant increase in rain coverage can be expected in central
Alabama during this time frame. Right now the ensemble based model
blends have targeted Thursday as the most likely rainiest day,
complete with a surface cold front passage, and that seems
reasonable. There will probably also be a (at least a momentary)
moderation in temperatures post frontal passage as well.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2025
VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals. VFR
prevails through the majority of this cycle. With that said,
isolated convection is expected this afternoon. MVFR conditions
are likely with any passing shower or storm. Continued with a
mention of PROB30 to account for this activity. Depending on how
much rainfall we see today, we will need to monitor for fog
development tomorrow morning.
95/Castillo
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH values will continue to stay in the 30-40% range through
the start of next week, with low end rain chances remaining in
the forecast. High rain chances are ultimately expected to come
with a cold front passage in the Wednesday to Friday time frame.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  65  90  65 /  30  20  20   0
Anniston    89  67  88  67 /  30  20  20   0
Birmingham  92  69  90  69 /  30  20  20   0
Tuscaloosa  94  68  91  68 /  40  20  10   0
Calera      92  68  91  67 /  30  20  10   0
Auburn      89  68  89  67 /  30  10   0   0
Montgomery  92  68  91  67 /  30  20  10   0
Troy        90  67  90  66 /  30  10   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...95/Castillo

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion