Notasulga, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

969
FXUS64 KBMX 210546
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1246 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2025
Central Alabama is in a mostly stagnant flow at the surface with
light and variable winds observed on most METARs over the forecast
area. Meanwhile, zonal flow exists aloft with additional moisture
advecting in from the west, especially within the 700 to 500mb
level over the last 24 hours. Another 500mb vort max is currently
diving southeastward across Arkansas and will move into western
Tennessee by this evening. An MCV has developed from previous
convection and based on visible satellite is currently spinning
over northern Arkansas, moving east. That feature will likely help
to trigger additional showers and storms to our northwest as we go
into the late afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, an agitated
cumulus field has developed roughly east of I-65, and isolated
showers have developed with a few storms now over western Georgia.
Initial development will continue across those areas, with
isolated storms forecast across the entire CWA by late this
afternoon and into the early evening. We`re already observing
lower 90s just after 1pm almost everywhere, on our way to the mid
90s between 3 and 4pm. As was the case yesterday, storms will be
pulse-like and capable of producing gusty downburst-type winds and
plenty of cloud-to-ground lightning. A few storms may last through
sunset this evening, but most activity is expected to diminish
after 9pm. With the nearby shortwave just to the north, skies will
be partly to mostly cloudy as high cirrus spreads across the
region. Lows will remain mild in the 60s.
We`re expecting the radar to be a little more active during the
day on Sunday as a more moist southeasterly flow develops at the
surface. In addition, southerly to southwesterly flow will develop
aloft with upper level shortwave energy producing lift at the
synoptic level. CAMs are indicating fairly good coverage of
showers and storms across the western half of Central Alabama
Sunday afternoon, where chance PoPs currently exist. Hopefully
some folks can receive a quick shot of rainfall where drought
conditions currently exist. Otherwise, another hot day with highs
in the mid 90s are forecast.
56/GDG
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2025
The big story in the long term is the development of a rather
significant upper level trough in the eastern half of the country
in the middle to end of next week. While the global models all
have varying versions of how that trough develops and evolves,
they do agree on the general idea of a cold front passage in the
late Wednesday to Thursday-ish time frame. Such a cold front
passage is likely to bring enhanced rain chances during the same
time frame, followed by a moderation of the warm temperatures
we`ve seen lately.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2025
Conditions will be VFR across central Alabama TAF sites for a vast
majority of the time over the next 24 hours. However, However,
convective coverage Sunday afternoon is expected to show a slight
uptick over previous days. Will carry over the PROB30 from the
previous forecast cycle, for the time period of peak afternoon
heating. Outside of shower/thunderstorm areas, cloud bases will
stay at or above 5000 ft and winds generally at or below 7 kts.
/61/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH values will continue to stay in the 30-40% range through
the start of next week, with low end rain chances remaining in
the forecast. High rain chances are ultimately expected to come
with a cold front passage in the Wednesday to Friday time frame.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  65  90  65 /  30  20  20   0
Anniston    89  67  88  67 /  30  20  20   0
Birmingham  92  69  90  69 /  30  20  20   0
Tuscaloosa  94  68  91  68 /  40  20  10   0
Calera      92  68  91  67 /  30  20  10   0
Auburn      89  68  89  67 /  30  10   0   0
Montgomery  92  68  91  67 /  30  20  10   0
Troy        90  67  90  66 /  30  10   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION.../61/

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion