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Notasulga, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

969
FXUS64 KBMX 210546
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1246 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 151 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2025

Central Alabama is in a mostly stagnant flow at the surface with light and variable winds observed on most METARs over the forecast area. Meanwhile, zonal flow exists aloft with additional moisture advecting in from the west, especially within the 700 to 500mb level over the last 24 hours. Another 500mb vort max is currently diving southeastward across Arkansas and will move into western Tennessee by this evening. An MCV has developed from previous convection and based on visible satellite is currently spinning over northern Arkansas, moving east. That feature will likely help to trigger additional showers and storms to our northwest as we go into the late afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, an agitated cumulus field has developed roughly east of I-65, and isolated showers have developed with a few storms now over western Georgia. Initial development will continue across those areas, with isolated storms forecast across the entire CWA by late this afternoon and into the early evening. We`re already observing lower 90s just after 1pm almost everywhere, on our way to the mid 90s between 3 and 4pm. As was the case yesterday, storms will be pulse-like and capable of producing gusty downburst-type winds and plenty of cloud-to-ground lightning. A few storms may last through sunset this evening, but most activity is expected to diminish after 9pm. With the nearby shortwave just to the north, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy as high cirrus spreads across the region. Lows will remain mild in the 60s.

We`re expecting the radar to be a little more active during the day on Sunday as a more moist southeasterly flow develops at the surface. In addition, southerly to southwesterly flow will develop aloft with upper level shortwave energy producing lift at the synoptic level. CAMs are indicating fairly good coverage of showers and storms across the western half of Central Alabama Sunday afternoon, where chance PoPs currently exist. Hopefully some folks can receive a quick shot of rainfall where drought conditions currently exist. Otherwise, another hot day with highs in the mid 90s are forecast.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 219 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2025

The big story in the long term is the development of a rather significant upper level trough in the eastern half of the country in the middle to end of next week. While the global models all have varying versions of how that trough develops and evolves, they do agree on the general idea of a cold front passage in the late Wednesday to Thursday-ish time frame. Such a cold front passage is likely to bring enhanced rain chances during the same time frame, followed by a moderation of the warm temperatures we`ve seen lately.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2025

Conditions will be VFR across central Alabama TAF sites for a vast majority of the time over the next 24 hours. However, However, convective coverage Sunday afternoon is expected to show a slight uptick over previous days. Will carry over the PROB30 from the previous forecast cycle, for the time period of peak afternoon heating. Outside of shower/thunderstorm areas, cloud bases will stay at or above 5000 ft and winds generally at or below 7 kts.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values will continue to stay in the 30-40% range through the start of next week, with low end rain chances remaining in the forecast. High rain chances are ultimately expected to come with a cold front passage in the Wednesday to Friday time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 91 65 90 65 / 30 20 20 0 Anniston 89 67 88 67 / 30 20 20 0 Birmingham 92 69 90 69 / 30 20 20 0 Tuscaloosa 94 68 91 68 / 40 20 10 0 Calera 92 68 91 67 / 30 20 10 0 Auburn 89 68 89 67 / 30 10 0 0 Montgomery 92 68 91 67 / 30 20 10 0 Troy 90 67 90 66 / 30 10 0 0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION.../61/

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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