Oak Grove, Massachusetts Weather Forecast Discussion

467
FXUS61 KBOX 130609
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
209 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and calm conditions early this morning with radiation fog
likely in low-lying areas.  Warm and partly cloudy today with
isolated showers possible in the afternoon.  Not as cool tonight,
but radiation fog is possible again. Rain chances return Sunday with
highs in the lower to mid 70s. We then return to dry weather and
temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Dry today with temperatures largely similar to Friday, but warmer
  along the immediate east coast and cooler along the south coast.
A cool and calm night is underway which has allowed good radiational
cooling to drop temperatures into the upper 40s in the typical cold
spots. Nighttime satellite imagery has already shown some
radiational fog forming in the interior and that will likely expand
over the next several hours, dissipating with sunrise. High pressure
begins to shift offshore today ahead of a weak shortwave and warm
front which will manifest in the form of diurnal cloudcover and a
few spotty showers. Low level flow increases from the south so while
some inland areas and the immediate east coast will be warmer, the
immediate south will be cooler (near 70) thanks to flow off the
water. Tonight temperatures will be warmer thanks to both increased
cloudcover as well as a warmer and more moist airmass with dewpoints
limiting lows to the mid to upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Best chance of some widely scattered showers and even a
  thunderstorm but not everyone will see rain.
The previously mentioned shortwave moves overhead on Sunday
supplying enough lift to act on PWATs of 1-1.25" while dewpoints in
the low 60s contribute to several hundred J/kg of CAPE. Thus, while
forcing won`t be great, we should see scattered showers and even a
few thunderstorms develop in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures
will rise into the upper 70s and low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Drying out for next week.
* Seasonable temperatures continue early, warming a bit by mid week.
Latest guidance trends continued more toward the drier end of the
forecast spectrum. While there is still a risk for some showers, am
thinking coverage remains more isolated and will not amount to very
much where it does rain.
Another large high pressure still looks like it will settle over
southern New England by Monday, and linger through most of next
week. Thus, anticipating continued dry weather with near normal
temperatures for mid September.
It`s not until late next week where there is a low chance for
another moisture-starved cold front to try an generate some showers
across our region. Went more with the persistent dry pattern and
kept the mention of showers out of the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z TAF Update:
Through 12Z: High confidence.
VFR for most locations. Patchy fog possible for the interior
terminals after 09z, mainly in the valleys.
Saturday: High confidence.
VFR. S winds 5-10 kts. An isolated shower is possible.
Saturday night: Confidence.
VFR. Winds light and variable.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night: VFR.
Monday through Wednesday:
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Light S winds through Sunday. Seas 2-3 feet throughout.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/Belk
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BW

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion