Oberlin, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

686
FXUS63 KGLD 110512
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1112 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thursday morning, there is a chance for widespread dense fog
  across the area.
- Thursday evening, severe storms are possible across eastern
  Colorado. Winds around 60 MPH and hail up to 1 inch are
  possible. Storm potential continues this weekend.
- Temperatures will be warming into the 90s over the next few
  days. Sunday looks to see a cool down with 80s expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1229 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Today, we find ourselves under the 500 mb ridge axis, which will
help our temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s. Starting
around 0Z, the remnants of a mid-level shortwave may (15-20%) push
into our Colorado counties. If it does, we can expect some decaying
showers and storms to move into Yuma county, maybe making it to the
Tri-State border. Main hazards with these storms would be hail up to
1.25 inches in the far northwestern CWA and winds of 45-60 MPH as
they are decaying. Motion of the storms are forecast to be from the
southwest to the northeast and as last as 7Z.
Following the storms overnight, depending on what the surface winds
do, we could see widespread, dense fog. If winds are coming from the
east-southeast, we can expect widespread fog. If we get calm winds,
most of the area will see some some, but dense fog will be scattered
and not widespread. If we get south-southwesterly winds, we will
likely not have any fog, but could have stratus forming. The fog
would likely start forming between 7-9Z and linger until 15-18Z
Temperatures are expected to remain in the low to mid 60s overnight.
Tomorrow, the ridge axis will be scooting off to the east, giving us
south-southwesterly flow throughout the column, helping temperatures
warm rapidly into the low to mid 90s. Around 21-03Z, both the 500 mb
low over the northwestern CONUS (that`s been sitting up there for
days), and the 850 mb low ejecting off the Rockies, will start
impacting the northwestern CWA. This will give us a 20-30% chance of
seeing some storms move across the western portions of the area.
There is a 60-70% chance the forcing for these storms will remain
west of the CWA, preventing convection in our area. If storms do
fire, they will be similar to this evening`s threats and end by 7Z
and be moving to the northeast. There is a 10% chance the forcing
makes its way into northwestern Kansas, in which case we would get
the bulk of the storms. Hazards would generally remain the same, but
there would be a slight increase for a flooding threat as storms
would be training.
Following the storms, we are looking at southwesterly winds
continuing overnight, so the fog threat is less than 10%. However,
we could see some stratus form. This would assist in keeping
temperatures in the upper 60s. The warmer temperatures are expected
to remain in the eastern CWA with the western CWA still seeing low
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
An 850 mb high pressure system over the mid and southern Mississippi
River Valley regions will sit in place of the long-term as lows
eject off the Northern Rockies. This will allow a southerly LLJ to
funnel mid and low-level moisture into the CWA as well as warmer
temperatures. Starting Friday evening, the 500 mb low looks to push
into the Great Plains and send stronger cold fronts into the area.
The timing for the strongest cold front(s) is still question, as
it(they) could impact the area Friday evening through Sunday
morning. Guidance is on the fence if there will be just one strong
front or two. Confidence that at least half of the CWA will see
convection between Friday evening and Sunday noon is 85%. Currently,
the most likely time for storms will be Saturday evening into Sunday
morning. The potential for severe weather is holding strong around
10-15%.
Sunday evening, the low looks to move off to the northeast and a
mild ridge will build back in, extending up from the southeast.
However, about 24 hours after that ridge moves in, we will see
another low moving in over the west coast and overrun the ridge,
leading to more unsettled weather to start off next week.
Ahead of the cold front this weekend, temperatures look to warm into
the upper 80s to low 90s. Behind the cold front, we expect to see
low to mid 80s. Overnight temperatures ahead of the cold front are
forecast to cool into the 60s, potentially near 70 for the eastern
CWA. Post front, low 50s to low 60s are forecast.
We are seeing another one or two lows moving into the area from the
northwest next workweek, which will keep the pattern active, but
details are sparse a this point.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Between surface high pressure in eastern KS and a weak low in east-
central CO, NW KS and SW NE will experience gentle
southeasterly winds overnight. This combination of moisture
advection and upslope flow, albeit weak, may prove sufficient to
result in low stratus and even some fog, though confidence
still remains low-medium on that with HREF showing around a
30-50% (15-25%) chance for IFR ceilings (visibilities) peaking
between 11z and 15z (5-9am MDT/6-10am CDT). Once whatever
stratus develops has "burned off", by around 16z (10am MDT/11am
CDT), VFR conditions should be predominant through the end of
the forecast period.
The area will receive a glancing blow from a disturbance
Thursday evening, but confidence (10-20%) is too low in a
thunderstorm at either airfield to include a PROB30 group at
this time. Some guidance is hinting at decaying precipitation
resulting in a burst of gusty winds (30-45 kt) during the
evening as well, but again confidence is too low to add this to
the deterministic forecast; outside of convection, southerly
winds will run 10-15 kt with sporadic gusts over 20 kt Thursday
afternoon and evening.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Bumgardner

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion