Ocoee, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

718
FXUS62 KMLB 141031
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
631 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
- Scattered showers and isolated storms forecast today, with
  greatest rain chances (up to 50%) along the coast of Volusia and
  Brevard Counties.
- Breezy conditions continue along the Volusia County coast
  today, with gusts up to 25-30 mph this afternoon.
- Poor to hazardous boating conditions persist across the Volusia
  and offshore Brevard County waters today. A High Risk for rip
  currents continues at area beaches.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Today-Tonight...A mid to upper level low will continue to cutoff
near to north of the area in the base of a trough extending across
the eastern seaboard. This low aloft will move little and will
help strengthen an area or surface low pressure off the Carolina
coast. A stationary front attached to this system will extend and
remain just south of Florida, keeping surface winds out of the
N/NE. Gradient weakens some today, so winds are not forecast to be
as gusty as yesterday for much of the area. However, along the
Volusia County coast breezy winds will still occur this afternoon,
with speeds around 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-30 mph. Elsewhere,
speeds will be closer to 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph
possible at times. Low level N/NE winds will continue to transport
some moisture onshore and inland across east central Florida,
with PW values around 1.5-1.7".
This flow will keep greatest rain chances, up to 50% along the
Volusia/Brevard County coast as the potential for scattered onshore
moving showers and isolated storms continues. PoPs then decrease
farther south and inland to 30-40%, as isolated to scattered showers
and a few storms will still be possible into the afternoon. Any
storms that do develop will have the potential to produce gusty
winds to 40-45 mph, occasional to frequent lightning strikes and
locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches. Temperatures will still be
slightly below normal, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and
lows tonight in the low 70s, except upper 60s across some inland
areas as drier air continues to build into the region in a light
northerly flow.
High astronomical tides and breezy N/NE winds will continue to
cause wave runup to near the dune line during the early afternoon
high tide today, especially north of the Cape. A High Risk of rip
currents also continues today.
Monday-Tuesday...Cutoff low aloft expands across the southeast
U.S. into early this week. This in turn continues to strengthen
low pressure off the coast off the Carolinas, with both the
GFS/ECMWF now showing this feature pushing onshore the Mid-
Atlantic coast Tuesday. Across central Florida, drier air will
continue to build into the area as low level flow continues out of
the N/NE. This will lead to below normal shower and storm
coverage to start the work week, with rain chances only around
20-30 percent across much of the area each day. Highs increase
only slightly to values closer to normal, with values ranging
from 85-90 degrees. Overnight lows will still be in the low 70s
for most locations, but still could see some normally cooler
inland locations drop into the upper 60s.
Wednesday-Saturday...Mid/upper level cutoff low shifts N/NE and
weakens into midweek, with E/SE flow dragging deeper moisture back
northward across the area into mid to late week. This will lead to
rain chances gradually increasing from south to north through the
period, rising to 50-70% by late week into early weekend. This will
also increase the potential for locally heavy rainfall and minor
flooding issues once again across the area, especially near to
southeast of the I-4 corridor into late week. Highs will generally
continue in the mid to upper 80s, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Today-Tonight...Seas are overperforming slightly from guidance, and
wave heights have reached up to 7 feet at Buoy 41009. Have
therefore added the offshore Brevard County waters to the Small
Craft Advisory (SCA), which for this portion of the waters will
continue through early morning. For the Volusia County waters the
SCA will continue through today for north-northeast winds still up
to 15-20 knots and seas still lingering to 6-7 feet. For the
nearshore waters of Brevard County and across the Treasure Coast
waters, northerly winds will be around 10-15 knots, with seas 3-5
feet.
N/NE winds diminish into tonight to less than 15 knots, but seas up
to 6 feet will still lead to poor boating conditions across the
offshore waters of Volusia and Brevard counties. Scattered showers
and storms will continue across the coastal waters today into
tonight.
Monday-Thursday...N/NE winds continue into early this week and
gradually veer to the E/NE through midweek, with speeds generally
less than 15 knots. Seas 3-5 feet over much of the waters Monday
through Tuesday are forecast to diminish to 3-4 feet into midweek.
Lower than normal shower and storm coverage forecast across the
waters early this week, but rain chances then increase from south to
north through Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 618 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Scattered showers and isolated storms ongoing this morning over
the Atlantic, with some activity pushing onshore along the coast,
mainly north of Cape Canaveral. Some MVFR CIGs this morning,
especially along the coast, but otherwise VFR. Scattered
showers are once again forecast today, with VCSH from MCO
eastward in the afternoon. Isolated lightning storms may develop,
but confidence is too low to include VCTS at this time. Light
winds will become N/NE and breezy to gusty by mid- morning,
especially from MLB northward. Shower and storm activity will
dissipate by early evening with mostly dry conditions and light
and variable winds overnight. Winds will then become N/NE once
again and increase to 5-10 KT Monday morning. VFR conditions
outside of convection through the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  71  85  71 /  50  20  30  10
MCO  87  70  89  71 /  40  10  30  10
MLB  86  73  87  74 /  40  20  30  20
VRB  88  71  89  73 /  30  20  30  20
LEE  86  68  89  70 /  30  10  20   0
SFB  86  70  88  70 /  40  10  30  10
ORL  86  71  89  72 /  40  10  30  10
FPR  88  70  89  72 /  30  10  30  20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ550.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ570.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ572.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Watson

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion