360 FXUS62 KJAX 101803 AFDJAXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 203 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Sfc high pressure system will continue to build into the area with a drier airmass filtering in through tonight. Before that, isolated to scattered shower activity expected to skirt our southern most zones rest of today, but rainfall amounts not expected to be much from this lingering activity rest of today. Winds continue breezy for eastern zones about 15-20 mph, gusting to near 30 mph.
By tonight, mean layer winds will transition from northerly at about 10 kt to northwest at 5-10 kt. This should lower the airmass PWATs further reducing to about 0.75 to 1.3 inches or so. Skies should tend to clear out especially for the inland areas north of about Gainesville. North to northeast winds will subside tonight and become more northerly at about 5-10 mph well after midnight. Lows below normal, about 60/lower 60s over inland southeast GA, and mid 60s to 70 for coastal southeast GA and the rest of northeast FL.
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.SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Predominantly dry weather conditions will be in place through the end of the week with the highest chances for showers and potential thunderstorms occurring over north central Florida and coastal northeast Florida in conjunction with a weak coastal trough as high pressure develops to the north and northeast leading to a more onshore prevailing flow before the weekend. High temperatures for the end of the week will be in the upper 80s for inland areas and in the mid 80s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower 60s for southeast Georgia and into the mid the mid to upper 60s over north central Florida, with min temps in the 70s along the coastline.
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.LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Chances for showers and possible isolated thunderstorms will increase over north central Florida and along the northeast Florida coast by the beginning of next week while the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure to the northeast and an area of low pressure to the east resulting in elevated winds for areas near the coastline. Otherwise conditions are anticipated to be fairly dry through the forecast period. High temperatures will rise to be near the seasonal average by the beginning of next week.
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Mostly VFR cigs over the region with some MVFR cigs for SGJ and around CRG rest of today. Should be VFR for tonight and Thursday. Breezy north-northeast winds for SGJ, CRG, and JAX rest of today at 10-15 kt gusts to 22 kt or so. Lesser winds for rest of the TAFs. Winds lighten tonight from the north, and increase to 6-12 kt on Thursday.
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.MARINE... Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Winds and seas remain elevated into tonight with exercise caution and advisories in effect. Readings from C-MAN SAUF1 show winds of 21 knots recently, and buoy 41117 showed 5-7 ft.
High pressure will be north through the rest of the work week. Breezy northeast winds and elevated seas expected through Thursday and weakening slightly. From Friday through Sunday, an area of low pressure develops well to the south and high pressure system remaining just to the north will again tighten the pressure gradient to increase northeast winds and build seas from Friday through Sunday with small craft advisories possibly required.
Rip Currents: High risk of rips rest of today, and on Thursday a moderate risk with a high risk for northeast FL. Friday through the weekend, risk likely elevated again at mod-high.
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.HYDROLOGY... Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Coastal water levels have been generally about 1.7 to 2.1 ft MHHW today. Minor flooding is in this range and only slight lowering of peak water levels anticipated through Thursday. Therefore, have extended the advisory into Thursday aftn. The area where we could ease off the minor flooding criteria is probably going to be coastal southeast GA, mainly Glynn county through Thursday, as we barely met criteria there this morning.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 60 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 68 84 71 84 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 68 86 68 87 / 0 0 0 20 SGJ 72 85 73 86 / 10 10 10 30 GNV 67 89 66 90 / 0 10 0 10 OCF 69 87 68 88 / 0 20 0 10
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.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125- 132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333.
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ452-454- 472-474.
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NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion