Oneida Castle, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

729
FXUS61 KBGM 090551
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
151 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure overhead will allow radiational cooling to push
temperatures below normal tonight. Areas of frost will be
possible, especially in our normally colder locations.
Temperatures will gradually warm up the remainder of the week
with dry conditions and plenty of sunshine.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure overhead tonight will bring clear skies and light
winds, setting up a pretty favorable environment for radiational
cooling. Temperatures are currently in the 40s, but should fall
into the low to mid 40s across much of the region. We do expect
areas in Chenango, Delaware, Otsego and northern Oneida county
for fall into the mid to upper 30s, especially in the normally
colder and more sheltered valleys. A Frost Advisory has been
issued for these counties from 2am to 8am this morning due to
the expected cold.
High pressure will continue to dominate through the period.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the 70s Tuesday and
Wednesday as the center of the surface high and mid level
ridging slides to the NE and flow becomes more southerly. CAM
guidance has started to show some rain showers working their way
into NEPA and the Catskills Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
low pressure system moves north off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Ensemble guidance and the latest deterministic runs show the
high over New England might be too strong to allow rain showers
to push onshore so PoPs were not introduced in this forecast
package. We will continue to monitor the evolution of the system
for PoP chances during the next forecast package.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The surface and mid level ridge that dominated the weather
pattern for the first half of the week will move off to the NE
by Wed night. It will be quickly replaced by another high
pressure system moving into the Great Lakes by Thursday morning.
This will continue our prolonged dry spell, bringing seasonable
high temperatures and slightly cooler than normal lows to the
area for the rest of the week.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure continues through Saturday. Guidance is starting
to show a low pressure system moving into the area from the NNW
on Sunday and Monday. Confidence in timing and location of rain
showers is low given a wide variety of solutions showing up in
model guidance. NBM PoPs were used for this period, which brings
slight chance (15-20%) across the area Sun and Mon.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With high pressure in place over the next 24 hours, VFR
conditions are expected at all terminals but ELM who will see
fog. Fog is beginning to develop at ELM early this morning and
should become LIFR by 8Z as temperatures fall into the upper
30s. There is uncertainty when the fog will lift after 12Z as
that is dependent on how thick the valley fog is able to get.
There is high confidence it will make it to 13Z but could last
as late as 15Z.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog each
late night/early morning at KELM will likely bring restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ009-045-046-
     057.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...AJG

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion