Oteneagen, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

691
FXUS63 KDLH 191943
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
243 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds at the head of Lake Superior will create rip
  currents at beaches across the Twin Ports today and
  potentially again Saturday.
- On and off rain showers with a few non-severe thunderstorms are
  expected through the weekend into Monday.
- Seasonal temperatures continue with a slight warming trend
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Current Conditions/tonight:
Radar this afternoon continues to shows scattered coverage of
showers across the Upper Midwest. Surface analysis shows a low
pressure over western MN that is beginning to fill. Aloft we still
have two upper level lows that continue to dance around each other.
The first is over the MN River Valley and the second resides over
the Canadian Prairies. Both features continue to produce lobes of
vorticity increasing synoptic forcing over the region and producing
our scattered showers. A few breaks in the clouds can be seen this
afternoon over southern MN and central WI that may allow us to build
in some weak instability by the evening hours. Our thunderstorm
chances still remain low but can`t rule out a rumble of thunder at
times as these scattered showers continue into the overnight period.
Additionally, there is some concern for dense fog tonight. Currently
webcams show the low cloud is primarily impacting locations on top
of the hill here in Duluth and over towards the Thompson Hill area.
For now, we have an SPS running through 9PM due to the isolated
nature of the fog. Some of the high res guidance wants to
expand this up the North Shore and into central St. Louis county
overnight.
Weekend:
Gradual movement from the pair of upper level lows impacting the
region will lead to continued rain chances. NBM guidance suggests
precipitation chances will taper off after Sunday. However, the 12Z
suite of deterministic guidance still has a fair bit of low level
moisture lingering over the region through then with some additional
shortwaves still in the mix. The EAGLE Ensemble is also holding onto
some rain chances across the Arrowhead and into NW WI through Monday
evening so we have opted to increase PoPs to match. The dry mid
levels however may lead to this being more of a drizzle then rain
scenario.
Next Week:
Activity settles down next week as an elongated upper level ridge
spans from the Northern Rockies into eastern Ontario. Drier air will
be more prevalent under this feature with upper level lows
undercutting this feature and diving through the central portions of
the Midwest. With the surface high pressure primarily parked over
eastern Ontario we will see fairly persistent easterly winds across
the region leading to more seasonable temperatures around the Lake.
However, farther inland temps will be 5-10F warmer than usual with
highs in the low 70s for much of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Radar this afternoon shows scattered rain showers across the region.
These rain chances look to persist through the TAF period with low
potential for thunderstorm activity this evening. For now, we have
left a mention of storms out of the TAFs but the most likely
terminals would be HYR/BRD this evening. Ceilings will continue to
be in the MVFR/IFR range through the period as a pair of upper level
lows dance over the Upper Midwest. Locally dense fog is also looking
to linger over the DLH terminal through at least the afternoon and
evening hours.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Strong northeast winds have overtaken the Lake with Small Craft
Advisories across most of the near shore waters. The exception to
this is at the head of the Lake where observations have been coming
in on the cusp of gales. Continued funneling across the Lake will
likely lead to these elevated winds continuing and possible
increasing this afternoon and evening. A Gale Warning is in
effect until 9PM. Afterwards an additional Small Craft Advisory
will likely be needed as winds and waves are not expected to
diminish until Saturday morning.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ121-148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>143-
     146-147-150.
     Gale Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion