Palmyra, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

937
FXUS62 KRAH 140605
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
205 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to our north will extend down through the Mid
Atlantic and the Carolinas through Monday, although a weak upper
level low settling over the Carolinas will bring periods of clouds
each day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...
* Quiet and dry.
Surface high pressure will continue to nose southward into NC
tonight, as a frontal zone holds well offshore. We`ve had sct-bkn
cumulus develop over the southern CWA, which should persist until
eventual dissipation with loss of heating toward nightfall, given
the deep dry air noted on ACARS soundings and WV imagery over the
region. High cloudiness continues to stream northward from
convection off GA/FL, and with the mid level shear axis holding over
the eastern Carolinas through tonight, we should continue to see
bouts of high cloudiness yielding fair skies over our eastern half.
With considerable dry air just off the surface, the risk of fog
tonight should be limited in areas to those typical isolated low
spots and near bodies of water, although some light predawn fog
can`t be ruled out near the VA border. Expect lows from the mid 50s
to around 60. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 124 PM Saturday...
Overall a fair weather day on Sunday with light NE winds (10 kt or
less)... some high clouds in the morning then perhaps increasing mid
and high clouds late... and highs in the lower 80s and lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.
The persistent upper trough aligned along the SE Coast will move
very little, with central NC on the more favorable drier west side
of the axis.  Models suggest a very weak backdoor front will slip
south into NC late in the day, but it will have little consequence
on our wx. Meanwhile, non-tropical sfc low pressure will be
positioned well to our east and offshore.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 AM Sunday...
* Below normal temperatures through mid-week before returning to
  above normal temperatures through the weekend.
* Isolated to scattered showers possible Tuesday through Wednesday,
  with the best chance in the east.
A coastal low will form off of a stalled front off the coast and
move along the NC coast to begin the work week, bringing the
potential of showers with perhaps embedded thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday. Model guidance is still split on the location of the low
and therefore how much rain will be able to get inland to central
NC, however seem to be coming into better agreement for rain
reaching at least the US-1 corridor and east. The airmass over the
region looks to be relatively stable, limiting thunder chances,
however a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, especially in
the northeast. Regardless of rain chances, clouds look to increase
Tuesday and Wednesday and temperatures have trended downward. Highs
on Tuesday could reach 15 degrees below normal, with highs in the
low-to-mid 70s, with some locations potentially only reaching the
upper 60s. Wednesday should be a few degrees warmer, with highs in
the 70s.
After the coastal low moves to our north, central NC should return
to a period of mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Maximum temperatures look to warm back up into the 80s from Thursday
through Saturday. Low temperatures each night are expected to range
from the upper 50s to the low-to-mid 60s. The next chance of rain
looks to be next weekend due to an approaching upper trough, however
details are very unclear at this time due to large model spread.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 AM Sunday...
24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions will largely prevail across
central NC through the next 24 hours. The one exception is the
possibility for very isolated and patchy fog through early this
morning, which guidance shows will be mainly confined to the far NE
Piedmont near the VA border. Think coverage is likely to be even
less than last night given the scattered to broken deck of mid and
high clouds streaming into the area from an offshore front and
mid/upper trough along the coast. So don`t have mention of fog in
the TAFs at any of the terminals. Scattered to broken mainly
mid/high clouds will persist across the area tomorrow, especially in
the east. Calm to very light N/NE winds (5 kts or less) tonight will
increase to 5-10 kts gusting to 15-20 kts at the eastern terminals
(RDU, FAY and RWI) from late morning into the afternoon.
Outlook: VFR conditions are likely to dominate into early next week,
with fair skies, except for sct-bkn VFR clouds each afternoon. Mid
and high clouds are expected to increase with patchy afternoon
showers possible by late Monday/Monday night into Tue/Wed as a weak
upper level low settles over the Carolinas.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Danco/BSD

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion