Paskenta, California Weather Forecast Discussion

619
FXUS66 KSTO 242030
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
130 PM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.
.SYNOPSIS...
Still expecting a somewhat unsettled weather pattern next 7 days.
First system on track to bring scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to areas south of I-80 and Sacramento. Confidence
increasing for a widespread rain event early next week.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
* TONIGHT - FRIDAY:
- Models seems to be handling the closed upper low that has moved
   north into our area pretty well. Precipitation that has already
   occurred has been on the light side with little lightning so
   far south of our area. Expect off and on showers tonight into
   early tomorrow morning areas south of Sacramento. Can`t rule
   out a few strikes of lightning overnight as well in this area
   but overall low impacts expected. Some instability and moisture
   remains in the are Thursday afternoon for isolated mountain
   showers and thunderstorms.
- Late Thursday night into Friday, we will get some breezy north
   winds in the north Sacramento valley as tonights system exits
   the area. This will create a few hours of elevated fire
   concerns during that time but duration and strength look low
   enough to not issue any fire products.
* SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- Confidence increasing for early next week of a widespread
   wetter system. Nearly all ensemble systems in agreement that a
   moderate strength trough approaches the west coast and stalls a
   bit and slowly weakens. Solid rain probabilities look
   reasonable of basically around 0.25 to 0.50" (about a 50
   percent chance) in the valley (heaviest north). And a good (50
   percent chance) of an inch in higher elevations in northern
   parts of the forecast area. This is the transition season, so
   still a chance models may be being too aggressive, but at this
   time confidence is increasing.
.AVIATION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to shift
north and east through the San Joaquin and southern Sacramento
Valley. All sites but RDD and RBL will see a chances for these
showers and isolated storms this evening and overnight. Precip
chances diminish around 10-13z from west to east. Winds will be
light throughout the period, with a few breezy conditions possible
near the Delta this evening. Ceilings remain VFR, with a BKN to
OVC cloud deck affecting all sites but RDD and RBL. SKC to FEW for
RDD and RBL through the TAF period. &&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS STO Office Area Forecast Discussion