Patterson, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

353
FXUS63 KPAH 232357
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
657 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Intervals of showers and storms will continue through
  Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible
  each afternoon and evening with gusty winds being the main
  threat.
- Heavy rainfall through Wednesday may lead to localized flash
  flooding issues.
- Slightly below normal temperatures through the remainder of
  the week turn more seasonable by the weekend with dry weather
  conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A 500 mb vort max over Colorado associated with a broad trough will
bring more periods of active weather across the FA through
Wednesday. The next area of rain and embedded storms is now over
SEMO and will continue to push east into western Kentucky through
this evening when the 12z CAMs show convection peaking. SPC
maintains a marginal risk of severe weather with isolated damaging
winds being the main concern. However, cloud debris associated with
morning convection has help to limit destabilization to some extent
with only 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE now progged by the RAP13
downstream. Give 25 to 30 kts of sfc-3km shear and low level lapse
rates between 6.0 to 7.0 C/km, a brief strong to severe storm
through this evening still cannot be ruled out.
The 12z CAMs remain split on the intensity of a second round of
storms tonight, with the HRRR and 3km NAM being more robust as a
weak sfc low deepens along I-64 helping to advect in even more
moisture. Unlike the first round, these storms should be more
elevated posing mainly a heavy rain concern. Regardless, heavy
rainfall rates due to PWATs between 1.5 to 2.0 inches will be
capable of causing localized flash flooding with typical runoff
issues in low-lying locations. As a amplified longwave trough
approaches from the west Wednesday and provides robust PVA, one
final round of showers and storms will be possible Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening, posing another marginal risk
of severe storms over southwest Indiana and western Kentucky.
As the aformentioned trough pushes east on Thursday, lingering
showers will remain possible before dry weather conditions settle
over the region for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will be
slightly below normal through the remainder of the week before
turning seasonable by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A couple of rounds of showers and storms are possible tonight
and into Wednesday that will bring impacts to the terminals. A
lull in activity is ongoing now and will continue into much of
tonight. Low ceilings and visby associated with patchy fog is
expected for most sites with IFR/LIFR conditions possible.
Gradual improvement are expected mid to late morning while
another round of showers and storms impact the terminals toward
the end of the TAF period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...AD

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion