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Patterson, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

721
FXUS63 KPAH 241122
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 622 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intervals of showers and storms will continue through this evening. Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this afternoon, mainly over western Kentucky.

- Heavy rainfall through Wednesday may lead to localized flash flooding issues.

- Slightly below normal temperatures through the remainder of the week turn more seasonable by the weekend with dry weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Modest low-level warm advection and about 500 J/kg of elevated instability continue to produce areas of light rain and embedded showers over the area this morning. This activity is expected to persist through the pre-dawn hours before the approach of the parent upper trough shifts forcing and likely reduces precip coverage for a period. Clouds may start to break up in the late morning and afternoon allowing for a little destabilization during the day today before the upper trough and associated cold front approach from the northwest. This should see activity start to pick up again in the afternoon, likely persisting into the early evening.

Severe risk overall appears fairly muted but there is a little better overlap of modest instability and favorable deep/low level shear forecast over the southern Pennyrile region where SPC has highlighted a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe today. PWAT values remain about 1.8 to 1.9. Storm motion will probably be sufficient to prevent significant flash flooding issues but another round of localized flooding will be possible today, especially in areas that have received heavy rain over the last couple of days.

Guidance consensus slips the front through by midnight with rain/shower chances tapering off by that point. In its wake a drier airmass sets up. The initial upper pattern brings broad surface ridging behind the front. Then GFS/ECMWF deterministic and ensemble guidance show a more chaotic pattern with multiple closed and semi-cutoff lows. The GFS is a little more forceful in keeping a more blocked pattern setup and keeping low level moisture at bay where the ECMWF creeps a little bit more moisture in under a stalled cut-off low. For now have continued with a drier forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Light rain and inconsistent ceilings can be expected through the morning. With MVFR ceilings occasionally opening up briefly, with the best chance of a little longer period of VFR conditions in the late morning and early afternoon before another round of showers and thunderstorms develops ahead of an approaching front. MVFR/IFR conditions are then expected at least for a few hours behind the front through early morning Thursday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...JGG

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion

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