Pawcatuck, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

557
FXUS61 KBOX 192306
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
706 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A brief shot of cooler air this weekend will be followed by a
warming trend early next week. The dry weather pattern also
continues next week with the exception of some showers possible
around the middle of the week. Temperatures will also average
above normal next week with Tuesday expected to be the warmest
day; when temperatures may reach 80+ in some locations.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will yield clear skies and dry conditions
tonight. The cooler airmass moves southward into southern New
England resulting in cooler temperatures than Thursday night.
Areas across the interior should benefit from radiational
cooling effects with lows in the 40s and a few upper 30s for the
higher elevation spots further north in MA. A more elevated
wind across the coastal areas will limit radiational cooling
keeping lows in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Very dry conditions Saturday with light winds. Elevated fire
  weather conditions possible for the interior.
* Cool fall-like night Saturday night with lows in the mid 30s
  to 40s.
Saturday:
A ridge aloft sits over the Great Lakes Saturday with a surface high
pressure over southern New England promoting sunny skies and dry
conditions. A cooler airmass will be in place with 925mb
temperatures 11-14C. As a result, temperatures may struggle to hit
70F in most locations Saturday, with the exception of the CT River
Valley. Other locations likely stay in the 60s with onshore flow
keeping the easterly facing coastal areas cooler in the low-mid 60s.
It will be a dry day as an airmass with below normal precipitable
water values positions over the northeast. Model soundings have
the boundary layer mixing to around 5,000 ft for the interior
in the afternoon which will support the larger temperature/dewpoint
spreads. Relative humidity values drop in the 25-35 percent
range for the interior and 40-55 percent closer to the coast.
Winds will likely remain light tomorrow out of the NE at 5-10
mph for the interior keeping conditions out of Red Flag
criteria; however, dry conditions and a prolonged period of
little rainfall will elevate fire weather conditions. No Special
Weather Statement has been planned for elevated fire weather
conditions, but it is not out of the question for the interior
portions of MA on Saturday.
Saturday Night:
Another quiet night Saturday night. Calm winds and clear skies will
promote a good radiational cooling night likely bringing our coolest
night so far this season. Temperatures drop into the upper 30s-40s
for most areas. Some of the higher terrain spots across west and
central MA have a shot at mid 30s. Some of those areas may see
some patchy frost.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Dry pattern continues except for some showers late Tue/Wed am
* Temperatures will average above normal next week
* Highs mainly in the upper 60s & 70s with 80+ possible Tue
Details...
Sunday through Friday...
The overall weather pattern will remain quiet for most of the
upcoming work week. A ridge of high pressure will slowly shift east
of the region late Sun. This will allow a return southerly flow of
air to work back into the region early next week with a warming
trend beginning. Highs on Sun should reach the upper 60s to the
lower 70s, well into the 70s Mon, and upper 70s to the lower 80s by
Tue ahead of the cold front.
As shortwave energy/cold front approach from the west...there
will be the risk for some showers sometime Tue into early Wed. How
much rain we see remains uncertain at this time. There are a couple
waves of low pressure that will be tracking along the cold front.
This may bring a modest swath of rainfall to the region if it tracks
just underneath us. However...if these waves track to our north or
south we will just see some scattered showers with limited QPF. This
is still 4-5 days in the future...so will take some more time until
we have a better idea.
A ridge of high pressure looks to build back into the region by next
Thu and Fri. This should bring a return to our dry weather pattern
with pleasant high temperatures mainly in the upper 60s to the
middle 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update...
Tonight...High Confidence.
VFR. Winds becoming N generally at 10 knots or less.
Saturday...High Confidence.
VFR. North winds generally 10 knot or less (outside of a few
brief 15-20+ knot gusts across the Cape/ACK) turn NE during the
morning and eventually E during the afternoon along the coastal
plain.
Saturday Night...High Confidence.
VFR. Calm/Light and variable winds.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday Night through Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Saturday...High Confidence.
Seas increasing to 4 ft for the northern outer waters tonight
after remaining around 3 ft or less through the day today.
Winds less than 25 kts today, though they increase this evening
approaching 25 kts for the northern outer waters after 00-06z.
Winds in other marine zones range 15-25 kts.
Winds decrease below 25 kts across all marine zones Saturday
afternoon/evening and seas fall to 3 ft or less as well.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Mensch/Frank
NEAR TERM...Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Mensch/Frank
MARINE...Mensch/Frank

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion