Peggy, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

885
FXUS64 KEWX 062319
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
619 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Locally heavy rain possible across parts of the Hill Country,
  southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, I-35 corridor, and
  coastal plains for the rest of today and Sunday. Localized
  flooding possible.
- Dry weather returns on late Monday into Tuesday and remains
  through the work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
An upper level short wave axis is moving across the east Texas coast
as of 1 PM CDT today, while several perturbations are
noticeable across South Central Texas in an northwest flow aloft
using the 500mb RAP analysis and lower level water vapor
imagery.
At the surface, a cold front is detected and extends from the Hill
Country to Val Verde County. The frontal boundary is forecast to
slowly push to the south for the rest of today into the evening.
Then, it stalls across the coastal plains through late Sunday
evening before starts to push away or dissipates.
When looking at area forecast soundings, they reveal precipitable
water values in the range of 2.0 to 2.3 inches across the local area
during the passage of the frontal boundary. Also, mean wind flow
appears to be around 10 to 15 knots (slow moving cells) and this can
aid storms to produce locally heavy rain which ultimately
could result in localized flooding.
Today`s rains are likely to concentrate over the Hill Country,
portions of the I-35 corridor including Austin and San Antonio
metros, southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and coastal
plains areas. Highest rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
possible. Isolated amounts up to 5 inches can`t be ruled out.
With the loss of daytime heating early this evening, the shower and
thunderstorm activity could remain over the Rio Grande, southern
Edwards Plateau, and coastal plains. For the rest of the local
area, rain chances are limited to 20-30 percent range.
Showers and storms return on Sunday as the frontal boundary remains
across the coastal plains and a few upper level perturbations push
across the local area. There is the chance for locally heavy rain
and localized flooding especially across parts of the Hill Country,
southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and coastal plains. New
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with higher amounts.
The frontal boundary finally dissipates or pushes away from the
local area on Monday and marks the return of dry conditions for some
areas especially the Hill County.
Cooler on Sunday with highs ranging from the lower 80s to lower
90s.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
The dry conditions continue to spread across South Central Texas on
Monday night into Tuesday with this conditions persisting through
Friday. Can`t rule out a few showers or storms across the coastal
plains later in the week with the help of sea breeze convergence.
High temperatures are forecast to warm up back to normal values
ranging from the lower to upper 90s for the work week period.
&&
.AVIATION (23Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A cold front is now south of all terminals with lingering
thunderstorms in the west and some showers in the east. Activity is
expected to lessen tonight, though some models continue storms in
the west near the Rio Grande. Models vary with MVFR ceilings
overnight so used persistence to continue low ceilings much of
Sunday morning before returning to VFR. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms increase again Sunday. First around DRT in the early
morning hours, with better chances for I-35 terminals late morning
into the afternoon hours. Confidence on storm coverage and location
remains low so only PROB30 groups have been used for this update.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  88  71  91 /  30  30  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  87  69  91 /  30  30  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  89  70  92 /  40  40  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            67  83  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  86  73  90 /  70  70  30  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  85  67  89 /  20  30  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             70  87  70  91 /  50  60  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  89  69  93 /  40  40  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  88  70  91 /  30  50  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  88  73  92 /  50  60  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           74  90  74  93 /  50  60  20  20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...27

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion