Pelham, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

561
FXUS64 KFWD 201726
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and low storm chances will continue
  through Tuesday.
- A cold front will move through North Texas Tuesday night
  accompanied by increasing rain/storm chances and cooler weather
  Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Sunday Night/
Satellite and radar imagery is quieter this afternoon as mid
level ridging exerts a little more influence on North Texas
weather. This will be short lived though as an 80 kt upper jet
noses into North Texas and a weak shortwave spreads ascent into
the Southern Plains later today. This should support at least
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly off to our
northwest, but there is some potential for these storms to become
semi-organized into small clusters and spread southeast within the
northwest flow aloft. We`ll have some low PoPs mainly across our
far northwest late this afternoon and evening with additional
storm chances late tonight into Sunday morning. Right now, we`ll
keep PoPs confined to our north/northwest counties as low level
flow will begin to veer prior to sunrise and may limit a further
southeast push. Modest instability will linger into Sunday morning
though...so we`ll need to monitor this closely through the late
evening as there is at least some low potential for a more robust
cluster of storms to come rolling through in the early morning
hours.
Otherwise, it`ll be warm this afternoon with highs in the low to
mid 90s with similar temps expected on Sunday. The aforementioned
weak shortwave will spread east of the area by late Sunday with
additional storm chances confined mainly near the Red River.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday through Friday/
Well above normal temperatures will persist across the region
Monday and Tuesday as mid level ridging expands ahead of a
deepening central CONUS trough. Weak warm advection and mid level
ascent within the northwest flow pattern will continue to support
very isolated showers/storms mainly across our far northern
counties both Monday and Tuesday. Better coverage of storms is
expected to remain north across Oklahoma during this time. As a
pronounced shortwave digs across the Central Rockies early
Tuesday, a cold front will spread south through the Plains. This
front will be stronger and will have a push of cooler air behind
it. The front should enter our northwest counties late Tuesday
into Tuesday night with scattered showers and thunderstorms
increasing through the night. While severe weather is generally
not expected, there could be a few strong storms overnight Tuesday
night across the region. The front should clear our area early
Wednesday morning with cooler and drier air moving into the
region. Highs should continue near seasonal norms Wednesday into
next weekend.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
VFR will prevail through much of the period with the main concern
being some low convective potential early Sunday morning. Showers
and thunderstorms will likely increase well off to our northwest
later this evening and tonight and should generally move from
northwest to southeast. At this time, it looks like most of this
activity will remain north and northwest of the major airports,
but we`ll continue to monitor through the evening. Outside of this
potential, southerly winds will prevail 10-15 kt through the
period with increasing mid/high cloud cover into Sunday morning.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  74  91  74  94 /   5  10  20  10  10
Waco                92  71  92  73  94 /   5   0  10   5   5
Paris               92  69  90  70  91 /   0   5  10  20  30
Denton              93  71  91  72  94 /   5  20  20  20  10
McKinney            93  71  90  73  92 /   5  10  20  10  20
Dallas              94  74  93  74  95 /   5  10  10  10  10
Terrell             92  71  90  71  91 /   0   5  10   5  10
Corsicana           93  72  92  74  94 /   0   0  10   5   5
Temple              93  70  92  72  94 /   5   5  10   0   5
Mineral Wells       94  69  93  71  97 /  10  20  30  10   5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion