Penalosa, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

648
FXUS63 KICT 242336
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
636 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lingering hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms through early to mid
  this evening.
- Extended period of dry weather with near to above average
  temperatures for at least the next 7-9 days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The slow-moving upper low responsible for the inclement weather the
past few days continues to move slowly south across the region.
Daytime heating amidst cooler air aloft and background synoptic
forcing will support a smattering of hit-or-miss showers and perhaps
a few thunderstorms areawide through early to mid this evening, but
especially over portions of eastern and southeast Kansas. Limited
instability and shear amidst poor lapse rates will likely preclude
strong or severe storms, although above average precipitable waters
will support brief heavy rainfall with the strongest activity.
Otherwise, deterministic and ensemble consensus supports a rather
quiet/dry period of weather through at least the next 7-9 days,
along with near to above average temperatures. The culprit will be
increasing upper ridging, and associated increasing thickness and
modest southerly flow. Forecast high temperatures look to range from
the upper 70s through the mid 80s the next several days, with
forecast low temperatures in the 50s and 60s. The GFS and ECMWF do
progress an upper trough over Mid-America early next week, which may
support low rain chances across the Kansas region, with the latest
data supporting very light amounts at best.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Isolated showers and storms will diminish this evening as
surface high pressure builds over the area with VFR conditions
expected over the next 24hrs.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion