Pequot Lakes, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

216
FXUS63 KDLH 182027
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
327 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds at the head of Lake Superior will create rip tide
  conditions at beaches across the Twin Ports through Friday.
- On and off rain showers with a few general thunderstorms are
  expected through the weekend into next week.
- Cooler temperatures are here to stay for the weekend. We will
  return to the 70s next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
A low pressure system sitting and spinning in the Dakotas is
leading to both chances for precipitation and strong winds.
Tight pressure gradients are leading to increased winds over the
western arm of Lake Superior. As a result, increased waves along
the Park Point and Wisconsin Point beaches will increase and
lead to conditions conducive for rip currents. A Beach Hazard
Statement is in effect for the rest of today, and will be needed
again on Friday. Winds off the lake will also keep areas along
the shore cooler than the rest of the CWA as well, with most
struggling to reach 60 through Friday
Cool conditions continue east across the rest of the area
through the weekend. Highs in the 60s to low 70s will reach
Wisconsin tomorrow, leading to fall like conditions for all
across the Northland.
Additionally, the low is advecting moist air from the south.
Multiple weak shortwaves are moving along the southerly flow
aloft as well. As a result, there will be on and off chances for
showers and a few thunderstorms embedded within. Sufficient
forcing and wind shear values to support strong to severe storms
are offset at any given time, so no strong to severe storms are
expected. However, with PWATs up to 1.5" could lead to
efficient rainfall rates, some ponding to nuisance flooding is
possible in isolated areas Friday afternoon.
The low departs to the east throughout Sunday, though we will
remain in a somewhat active and messy pattern as a closed upper
level low provides forcing to continue on and off showers
throughout the Northland. We will also see an increase in
temperatures as the low departs back into the low to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
A low spinning off to the west is advecting warm, moist air that
is leading to constant chances for precipitation throughout the
end of the week. A dry slot is the saving grace for HYR which is
currently VFR. All other terminals are at MVFR or IFR. DLH is at
IFR from advection off Lake Superior, which is expected to lift,
but the stable lake air mass will likely keep ceilings in low
MVFR.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Tight pressure gradients across Lake Superior is leading to
strong northeast winds across the western half. Wind gusts up
to 30 kts have been observed today, and are expected to continue
through Friday before the low pressure system to the west moves
northeast into Canada. While the low pressure system lingers, on
and off chances for showers and a thunderstorm or two through
the weekend.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for LSZ121-148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>147-
     150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion