Perry, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

366
FXUS62 KTAE 081830
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
230 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A cold/stationary front will remain positioned to our south on
Tuesday. A general NW-SE moisture gradient will again be in place,
helped in part by the front`s positioning and persistent
northeasterly flow. Model guidance indicates a fairly expansive
cloud deck blanketing much of the eastern and southern portions of
the region which will likely cap tomorrow`s high temperatures to
below average values. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will be in
the low 80s in our far eastern areas and in the mid-upper 80s in our
far western areas. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 60s
for our northern counties and low 70s for our southern/coastal
counties.
With this moisture gradient, the highest chances of rain appear to
again be in the southern and eastern portions of the region.
Interestingly, some model solutions are indicating a weak surface
low swinging NE from the Gulf into some of our southeastern counties
which would result in more shower and thunderstorm activity. PoPs
were slightly increased to try and capture this, however there is
still considerable uncertainty in this due to disagreeing model
depictions of this feature.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Mid-level troughing persists aloft over the next week while
surface high pressure builds to the lee of the Appalachians.
This will lead to a noticeably drier air mass filtering into
the region from North to South on Thursday. Prior to that, a
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday to
the southeast of a rough line from Valdosta to Panama City,
with the highest PoPs in the Southeast FL Big Bend. Highs in
the 80s on Wednesday rise to the upper 80s to lower 90s on
Thursday thru the weekend, as ridging aloft shunts low-level
moisture and the more extensive stratus/stratocumulus to the
southeast of the region. The drier air and weakening pressure
gradient should allow low temperatures to fall off perhaps
several degrees below guidance starting Thursday morning into
next weekend, with some of the more sheltered locals maybe
flirting with the 50s. Looking ahead, the next chance of any
meaningful rainfall is not until at least the middle of next
week as easterly flow gradually moistens the column with a
stalled frontal boundary in the Gulf.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A low stratus deck currently strung across the region is causing
MVFR conditions for DHN, ABY, TLH, and VLD. Model guidance has
struggled in capturing the westward and northward extent of this
deck, however the expectation is for this low deck to lift to VFR by
late afternoon. A sharp NW-SE moisture gradient is present due to a
stalling front to our south and persistent northeasterly flow.
PROB30 TSRA groups were added only at TLH and VLD this afternoon
based on this gradient to capture where confidence is highest on
thunderstorm development. Guidance has become more bullish on the
possibility of a similar, if not more expansive stratus deck
developing tomorrow morning. The greatest chances of IFR and below
conditions appear to be again at TLH and VLD, but have added
SCT009 groups to ABY and ECP to account for uncertainty and for
the general poor model skill exhibited in today`s stratus deck.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Persistent northeast flow over the next several days with high
pressure situated northeast of the waters and a stalled frontal
boundary/low pressure to the south over the Gulf. The pressure
gradient between these features will tighten at times, leading
to winds around 20 knots and seas ranging from 3 to 6 feet thru
at least Thursday. Another Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for all the waters late today and early tonight into Tuesday
afternoon, and yet another advisory will likely be needed from
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Friday and Saturday, elevated
winds and seas are expected to persist, with a 40% chance of
reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Some pockets of marginally high dispersions are possible Monday
afternoon. Transport winds are generally elevated at 10-15kts on
Monday, but lower mixing heights between 4-5kft are helping limit
dispersions. By Tuesday, transport winds and mixing heights both
elevate over the northern and western portions of the region,
leading to pockets of higher dispersions. Similar spatial coverage
of higher dispersions pockets are again likely on Wednesday. Most
rain coverage should remain in the southern and eastern areas of the
region through the forecast period, so the higher dispersions will
lead to some elevated fire concerns.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
There are no flooding concerns.
A dearth of precipitation is expected roughly north of I-10
over the next week with high pressure and a dry air mass in
place. South of I-10, diurnal showers and isolated thunder-
storms may result in up to an inch of precip on average thru
Wednesday, with dry weather Thursday through the weekend.
The US Drought Monitor indicates abnormally dry conditions
from the FL/GA State line into the lower Flint River Valley,
where normal precipitation amounts over this one week time
frame would be around an inch.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  70  83  70 /  40  20  30  10
Panama City   90  71  87  71 /  30  30  30  10
Dothan        86  68  86  67 /  10   0  10   0
Albany        85  67  85  66 /  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      86  69  83  68 /  30  10  40  20
Cross City    88  72  83  70 /  80  50  70  40
Apalachicola  86  72  83  72 /  50  50  50  30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765-
     775.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Tuesday
     for GMZ751-752-770-772.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...LF

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion