Pershing, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

795
FXUS64 KTSA 120516
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1216 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
- Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures into next
   week. Portions of the area could see an isolated shower or
   thunderstorm Sunday afternoon and again next Thursday.
- Heat index values of mid 90s to near 100 degrees Friday into
   the weekend, which could increase heat stress potential for
   those with outdoor plans.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
High pressure reigns supreme across the Southern Plains Friday and
Saturday with the mid level ridge centered over eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Within the low levels to the surface, flow is
expected to become more southwesterly compared to Thursday. In
response, temperatures each day are forecast to be slightly warmer
with highs in the low/mid 90s and lows in the 60s/lower 70s common.
At the same time, dewpoints getting back into the mid 60s to around
70 deg will aid in heat index values of mid 90s to near 100 degrees
Friday and Saturday afternoons. This could increase heat stress
potential for those with outdoor plans. Also, with the ridge firmly
in place, any shortwaves/disturbances rounding the top of the ridge
should remain west and north of the CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Mid/upper level ridge axis is progged to shift east of the CWA
Sunday as an area of low pressure, currently over the Western CONUS,
moves out into the Plains. As the wave moves lee of the Rocky
Mountains and interacts with an increased low level jet Saturday
night/early Sunday morning, scattered showers/storms are forecast to
develop. This development looks to move east/northeast with the
movement of the wave and could potentially reach the northwestern
portion of the forecast area Sunday afternoon/evening before moving
into eastern Kansas. For now though with uncertainty of just how far
east this activity can travel will keep PoPs just west of the CWA.
Increased cloud cover and a more southerly wind direction could
allow for temps Sunday afternoon to be a couple degrees cooler.
Model solutions continue to differ somewhat with the strength and
location of the high pressure ridge for the first half of next week.
Latest indications try to build the ridge back over the region
Monday and Tuesday in the wake of the departing wave Sunday night,
which would keep above seasonal average temps across CWA. Getting
into the middle to latter half of next week, the ridge looks to get
suppressed south and east of the CWA with another shortwave dropping
southeast into the Plains. If this trend late next week can
continue, this looks to have the greater potential for precip for
the CWA as well as a return of cooler conditions. Otherwise, no
significant rainfall is forecast through the next 7 days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  72  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   94  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   94  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   93  67  93  67 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   93  69  93  69 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   94  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   92  69  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
F10   94  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  70  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...05

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion