Pine Level, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

512
FXUS62 KRAH 201719
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
119 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak backdoor cold front will move south through NC later today
and tonight. High pressure will follow and extend across the Middle
Atlantic Sunday and Monday, then drift offshore.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...
* Mostly dry backdoor cold front will reach the region this evening.
* A few isolated showers may be possible this afternoon, with the
  best chance in the southern Piedmont.
* Above normal temperatures continue.
Based on the 17Z observations and satellite, it appears that the
backdoor cold front is located in central VA. Over the next several
hours it will continue to move southward into central NC. While the
frontal passage should be dry, a few isolated showers/potential
thunderstorms may be possible ahead of the front, with the best
chance in the southern Piedmont where instability appears to be
maximized this afternoon. Currently, a few showers/storms are
already starting to develop in northern SC. Tonight, behind the
front, areas of fog and low stratus look to spread into the region
from the northeast.
Temperatures should be up to 5 degrees above normal today. This
afternoon expect maximum temperatures around the mid 80s in the
north to the upper 80s in the south. Temperatures overnight look to
dip into the low 60s areawide, with perhaps a few locations dipping
into the upper 50s in the coolest spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...
* Warm and dry day expected.
Surface high pressure will build back in on Sunday. This should
allow central NC to return to a dry period, with no rain expected on
Sunday. Temperatures Sunday should be slightly cooler than today,
with highs expected in the low 80s in the north to the mid 80s in
the south. Lows overnight should dip into the upper 50s to low 60s.
Sunday night another area of low stratus and/or fog will be
possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...
At the beginning of Monday, surface high pressure will be centered
over Massachusetts with a ridge extending southwest into the
Carolinas. A surface low will be over the Dakotas with a stationary
front extending east towards the Great Lakes. At upper levels, a
trough over the northern Rockies will move southeast, eventually
merging with an upper low over the western Great Lakes mid-week
across the Plains. The merging of the upper level features will help
intensify the surface low as it slowly pushes east.
Locally, Monday and Tuesday will be dry as the surface high remains
along the East Coast. As the upper low merges and moves into the
central Plains, the chance for rain should expand eastward into
North Carolina late Wednesday, but the better chances for rain
arrive later in the week, with Friday currently being the day with
the highest chances for showers.
As the surface wind changes from having a northerly component on
Monday to a southerly component Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will
slowly increase through the week, with widespread 80s and a few 90
degree readings on Wednesday. As more cloud cover moves in along
with showers later in the week, highs will then decrease, ranging
from the mid 70s to the low 80s by Saturday. Lows will generally be
in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 740 AM Saturday...
LIFR-IFR restrictions will linger at RWI and FAY through 13-14Z,
after which time VFR conditions and light nely surface winds are
expected. Otherwise, an isolated shower/storm will be possible (~15-
20% probability of occurrence) this afternoon from near AFP to MEB
and FAY, and also from near HNZ to IXA and RWI. Stratus and fog will
likely develop behind a backdoor cold front late tonight-Sunday
morning, most likely before 12Z at RWI and RDU and around or just
after 12Z at each of the other TAF sites.
Outlook: Areas of stratus and fog will be possible again late Sunday
night-Monday morning. Showers/storms and flight restrictions are
expected mid to late this upcoming week.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Helock
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...MWS

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion