Pitner Junction, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

785
FXUS64 KSHV 101119
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
619 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
- Despite the somewhat milder afternoons and cooler mornings
   lately, Summer returns with middle to upper 90s likely by later
   this week.
- Along with the hotter temperatures will be no mention of
   precipitation through the upcoming weekend into at least the
   middle part of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Our region of the country remains under the influence of a subtle
longwave trough across the Great Lakes into the Ohio and Lower
Miss Valleys with upstream ridging noted across the Great Plains.
Normally a flow like this might exhibit at least some nocturnal
convection associated with it but our region has been under the
influence of a very dry atmosphere, both at the surface and aloft
with PWATs below 1 inch across much of our region. This has
allowed for cooler mornings and moderating temperatures during
the afternoon to go along with low afternoon humidity, making
afternoon temperatures somewhat tolerable for early September.
That will begin to change as we move into the later half of the
work week and into the upcoming weekend.
The downstream longwave trough will lift out somewhat across the
Appalachians by Thu into Fri and the upstream upper ridging
mentioned above slowly migrating eastward, setting up shop across
much of Oklahoma and Texas. This will result in subsidence aloft
which of course will result in hotter temperatures. Higher sfc
dewpoints noted across the Lower Miss Valley will continue
retrograding westward on the heels of retuning southeasterly winds
and that should result in higher afternoon humidity which may
result in the return to triple digit heat indices across some
areas by Thursday and becoming more prevalent areawide by Friday.
Looking into the early and even the middle part of next week, the
upper ridge remains very stagnated, anchored somewhere across the
Middle Red River Valley. This will likely result in a continuation
of above normal temperatures and virtually no chances for
rainfall. This pattern may (with the key word being "may") begin
breaking down just beyond this 7-day forecast cycle as the medium
range is hinting at a little more in the way of impacts from the
westerlies. Time will tell. Until then, enjoy a return to the
Summer heat.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Aside from patchy ground fog potentially bringing MVFR VSBYs to
MLU this morning, VFR conditions to persist across area terminals
through the forecast period ending 11/12Z. Light and variable
winds this morning to become southeast at 5 knots this afternoon
followed by light and variable again after 11/00Z. /05/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  70  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  68  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  89  64  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  93  68  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  92  65  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  90  68  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  92  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  93  68  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...05

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion