Plainview, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

600
FXUS63 KEAX 101842
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
142 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures today through the first half of next
  week. Friday and Saturday will be the hottest days with highs
  in the low to mid 90s (10-15 degrees above normal).
- Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms return
  late Sunday mainly for northeast KS and northwest MO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Higher heights, due to the approaching mid to upper level ridge over
the Great Plains, combined with persistent southerly flow for most
of the area will allow highs today to reach the mid to upper 80s. A
H700 shortwave moving through the flow over KS has provided lift
resulting in a MCS to our west this morning. Since then, the MCS has
been decaying as it moves farther east, progressing deeper into a
drier, more stable air mass. The 850-300 MB mean wind flow suggests
the MCS will begin to track to the southeast as it continues to
approach the KS/MO border. As it starts to move to the southeast, a
few, decaying showers may clip the southwestern edge of our CWA
(counties near Miami, Linn [KS], and Bates). A few of the hi-res
models show a weak signal for precip from 22Z-00Z. However, even
light showers seem to be a stretch as the environment becomes
increasingly more stable and dry farther east.
For Thursday afternoon, our warming trend will persist as the mid to
upper level ridge continues its approach. Broad-scale subsidence
will reduce cloud coverage allowing diurnal heating processes to be
more efficient than the past few days. The eastward track of the
H850 thermal ridge will allow H850 temperatures to warm to near 20
degrees C with higher temperatures farther west into KS. With
reduced cloud coverage, deep mixing will allow temperatures in the
upper 80s to become more widespread. A few areas south of I-70 may
even reach the low 90s as a more southwesterly component to the
winds will allow warm air advection directly from the H850 thermal
ridge to the west.
Friday and Saturday will be the hottest days this week as the axis
of the mid to upper level ridge moves over the area. Additionally,
an elongated mid to upper level low in the western U.S. will help
amplify the ridge pushing temperatures even higher. High
temperatures are anticipated to reach the low to mid 90s ranging
around 10-15 degrees above normal. The good news is dew points
remain in the 60s keeping conditions less muggy and diminishing the
need for heat headlines.
Going into the second half of the weekend the mid to upper level
ridge shifts farther east and begins to weaken. As a result, highs
for Sunday are expected to be a few degrees cooler than Saturday,
reaching the low to mid 90s. The aforementioned elongated mid to
upper level low will track to the northeast over eastern MT. As the
ridge weakens, H700 shortwaves within the circulation of the mid to
upper level low will provide chances for showers and storms late
Sunday into early Monday primarily for northeastern KS and
northwestern MO. Given the weak instability and limited shear,
showers will be more likely than storms. Early next week, a closed
low sets up on the west coast ejecting shortwaves through the flow
bringing us additional spotty chances for precip during the first
half of next week. For temperatures, as our area still remains under
the influence of the mid to upper level ridge, highs mostly remain
in the mid 80s to low 90s through next Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR conditions anticipated for the duration of the TAF period.
Winds remain mostly weak across the area under 10 kts. There are
still a few lingering high-based clouds towards west-central MO.
Additionally, some cu fields have begun forming around 5-10 kft.
Winds will weaken to light and variable overnight and then
increase to around 7-9 kts tomorrow morning as diurnal mixing
commences.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion