Plaza, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

101
FXUS66 KOTX 060545
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1045 PM PDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unsettled weather returning to the region over the weekend and
  into next week with increasing threat for showers and
  thunderstorms.
- Gusty outflow winds to 40 mph possible near thunderstorms
  Saturday evening and night.
- Temperatures trending cooler heading into this weekend and
  next week.
- Smoke and haze expected to continue through the weekend
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Smoke and haze is expected to continue over the weekend. The
threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase this evening
and into Sunday. Gusty outflow winds are possible near any
thunderstorms. Additional rain chances will arrive next week
with cooler temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday: As a trough digs in along the coast,
the ridge finally begins to move East. It allows shortwaves
circulating around an embedded Low to push through the Pacific
Northwest. There is still uncertainty with timing and placement
of the Low. Overall the region finally have begin to trend to
moderate near normal temperatures and increasing shower chances
for the Inland Northwest. An initial pulse of instability along
the Cascades could generate a weak thunderstorm (5-15% chance)
Friday evening. It will be followed by a more robust wave late
Saturday into Sunday (20-40% thunderstorm chance). One concern
are the winds ahead of the wave. Some models are showing winds
sustained in the teens with gusts near 30 to 35 MPH. While the
shower chances increase across the region, the amounts are not
expected to be much for the most of the lowland locations with a
few hundredths at most. The mountains will fare much better
with at least a tenth and potentially up to three quarters of an
inch through Wednesday. Instability parameters are strongest on
Sunday and weaken through the start of next week. Temperatures
will be pleasant compared to the last few days with highs in the
70s and low 80s. Lows will be in the 50s. /JDC
Monday-Thursday: There is increasing confidence for a significant
pattern change over the Northwest with the low slowly migrating
through the region. This leads to high confidence for cooler
temperatures and higher humidities which is great news for the
fires. The low will also bring increasing chances for on and off
periods of showers and thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will trend wetter with time with NBM indicated a 30-80%
chance for wetting rains by midweek. Given the convective
nature of the precipitation bands, it conceivable that some
areas miss out, thus the 30% which found across the lower Basin,
but many areas where the fires are burning are closer to 50-80%
chances. Temperatures will be cooling back into the 80s and
then 70s as the low moves inland. At this time, we do not
anticipate a significant wind event with this changing air mass
as this system slowly meanders inland but locally breezy
conditions are not out of the question, especially near any
convection.
Heading into Friday and next weekend, there is a lot more
uncertainty with the forecast. A second low approaches from the
E Pac. This will help kick the first low to the east. Likely
there will be a period of dry and warm conditions between these
features but how long is uncertain. Consensus amongst the
ensembles is for 2-3 days. We will need to closely monitor the
evolution of the offshore low. Some of the ensembles sweep this
wave through swiftly which could be a wind maker while others
develop split flow and would yield far less wind. More to come
on this in the coming days. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Visibility is expected to be restricted from wildfire
smoke regionwide. Visibility is expected to range from 4-7
miles for most of Central and Eastern Washington and north
Idaho, but areas near fires including Colville will see
restrictions as low as 1 mile. A disturbance lifting northward
will bring a small threat (10-30%) for high based showers
between Moses Lake and Wenatchee 15-19z. After 00z, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will become an increasing aviation
risk starting over southern WA and the lower Idaho Panhandle
00-04z and drifting northward 04-09z. Gusty outflow winds to 40
mph possible near any storms.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Low confidence in precise visibilities at the TAF sites from
haze and smoke. Showers 15-19z between Moses Lake and Wenatchee
have a 10% chance of producing lightning but this comes with low
confidence. There is moderate confidence for scattered
thunderstorms 00-06z and beyond. /sb
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        93  60  94  63  85  58 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  93  60  94  63  85  59 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Pullman        93  58  90  58  82  53 /   0   0  10  30  30  30
Lewiston       99  67  95  67  89  63 /   0   0  10  30  30  30
Colville       93  51  94  53  85  49 /   0   0   0  20  40  40
Sandpoint      88  55  90  57  83  54 /   0   0   0  20  30  40
Kellogg        90  63  91  64  83  60 /   0   0   0  20  30  30
Moses Lake     97  63  93  61  86  56 /   0   0  20  20  40  10
Wenatchee      95  71  92  68  85  62 /   0  10  20  40  50  20
Omak           98  66  96  65  88  60 /   0   0  10  20  40  30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Chelan
     County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
     Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee
     Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
     Red Flag Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-Foothills of
     Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Waterville Plateau
     (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and
     Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
     Panhandle.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion