Poca, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

935
FXUS61 KRLX 161115
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
715 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A bit cloudier today into early tomorrow, with low-end rain
chances in the east. Dry again to end the work week, with
scattered showers and storms possible early next week..
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 150 AM Monday...
A cut-off upper-low will linger over the Mid-Atlantic in the
near-term, with a corresponding coastal surface low currently
just offshore Hatteras forecast to come ashore eastern NC and
southeastern VA, or linger just offshore. The bulk of guidance
shows showers at best just tickling the eastern border of the
CWA later today and tonight, and the National Blend reflects
that expectation, with just a few showers forecast for the
northern mountains and areas nearby. Otherwise, there will be
some increased cloud cover across the area through the period,
which may help keep us a few degrees cooler than recent days,
especially in the southeastern half of the CWA. Generally, highs
in the 60s to low 70s in the mountains, with mid-70s to mid-80s
for the lower elevations.
Much of the guidance shows mid-level moisture around 700mb
increasing, especially over WV and VA, so afternoon RH values
may not drop as low as recent days given the lack of dry air
aloft to mix down to the surface. However, for the Ohio Valley
and into SE Ohio, there should still be some dry air aloft that
can get tapped into if there is enough low-level heating and the
boundary layer can mix deep enough. Thus dew points were
lowered a bit below the National Blend and we still expect
afternoon RH values getting well down into the 30s there.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 AM Monday...
As the coastal low meanders near the Tidewater or Chesapeake on
Wednesday, we may still see a few showers in the northeastern
corner of the CWA during the day. However, it still is the
consensus solution that a passing upper-level trough will pick
up the system by Wednesday night and start to direct the low,
and its moisture, off to the northeast, cutting off any further
rain chances for our area. With clearing skies and a weak high
pressure settling into the area Wednesday night bringing calm
winds, we may see some decent valley fog once again.
With lingering cloud cover and N-NE`ly breezes, highs on
Wednesday may be similar to today. However, with abundant
sunshine on Thursday and Friday, temperatures will jump back up
well above normal, with lowland highs in the 80s to near 90
degrees, and the mountains in the upper 60s and 70s. Daytime RH
values will once again bottom out in the lower 30s and even
upper 20s for most lowland locations Thursday and Friday. While
winds should remain on the light side and not very gusty, thus
limiting critical fire weather concerns, the finer fuels will
continue to dry out and make new fire starts fairly easy.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 AM Monday...
It remains a bit of a question just how quickly the upper
ridging over the region will break down late in the period.
However, the trend in the model data the past couple of days
seems to be towards a slower break down, and thus a drier and
warmer Saturday. Indeed, while we show clouds gradually
increasing from the west on Saturday, warm advection courtesy of
S`ly winds looks to help keep Saturday`s highs similar to those
on Friday noted above.
The trend also seems to be towards a slower and potentially less
certain arrival of a disturbance early next week, which is
keeping rain chances across the area limited for Sunday and
Monday. Right now, it does appear that the upper level ridging
will start to shift off to the east on Sunday as an upper-level
trough pushes east into the upper Midwest and central
Mississippi Valley. Even before the main body of the trough
approaches next Tuesday or Wednesday, outside of the scope of
this forecast, there could be a few weak 500mb disturbances that
slide over the lower Great Lakes or central Appalachians Sunday
and/or Monday, bringing some showers and potential thunderstorms
to the CWA. However, the surface high pressure axis extending
southwestward from New England into VA and NC may hold strong,
and limit the amount of low-level moisture that can feed into
any disturbances that ripple along the eastern edge of the
encroaching trough, keeping rain chances on the lower side as of
now.
Sunday and Monday highs will depend a lot on the extent of cloud
cover and shower activity. For now, given the expected increased
cloud cover, highs are dropped about 5 degrees compared to
Friday and Saturday, but this may very well change depending on
how the other elements of the forecast evolve.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 AM Tuesday...
Patchy to overcast high clouds, with intermittent mid-level
clouds underneath, remain over the area this morning, and likely
will continue through much of the day, especially southeast of
the Ohio River. Overall, expect VFR conditions today, with
gentle E-NE`ly breezes developing by the afternoon. Can`t rule
out a stray shower between 18z and 06z for EKN, but chances are
low enough that not even a VCSH mention was made for now.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None expected.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions not expected at this time.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion