Point Vivian, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

688
FXUS61 KBUF 181806
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
206 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry weather through most of today. A
weak cold front will then drop south across the area very late
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night while generating some
sprinkles and widely scattered light showers. Strong Canadian
high pressure will then build southeast across the region
through the first half of the weekend and bring a return to dry
and cooler weather. The high will then slide off the east coast
Sunday...with a southerly return flow of warmer air on its
backside overspreading our region through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Latest satellite imagery and surface observations show the cold
front positioned along a line from just north of Toronto through
Ottawa moving south associated with a larger scale upper level low
digging into eastern Canada. What has been mostly sunny skies across
western NY today, will eventually turn with increasing cloud cover
this afternoon along with widely scattered light rain showers. The
greatest coverage looks to be across the St. Lawrence Valley into
portions of the Tug Hill where forcing is best from the mid-
level shortwave. Additionally, an isolated showers or two may
develop ahead of the frontal passage across the Niagara
Frontier. Behind the front, northerly flow will result in added
low-level moisture from the lakes that may support scattered
showers developing overnight across the lake plains extending
into the Finger Lakes region. Precipitation totals look to be
little to none with overall dry profiles aloft.
Behind the front on Friday, will start off with mostly cloudy
skies across much of western NY with lingering low-level
moisture and northerly upslope flow. Temperatures will be ~10
degF cooler than Thursday as 850mb temps drop closer to normal
values for mid-September, 10-12 degC. Low-level moisture will
continue to dry up throughout the day giving way to clearing
skies Friday night. This will support favorable radiational
cooling conditions with overnight temperatures dropping into the
low-40s. Frost will be possible for eastern portions of the
CWA, especially for valley locations in Lewis Co, closer to the
high pressure ridge sliding into north-central NY where 850mb
temps could drop as low as 6 degC with fairly weak winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Large area of surface high pressure will shift southeast from
southwestern Quebec to just off the New England coast by late
Sunday, while mid/upper level ridge axis crests over our area
Sat/Sat night, before shifting east across New England on Sunday.
This will allow the current stretch of dry weather to continue right
through the upcoming weekend. Near normal temperatures Saturday will
trend some 10 degrees higher for Sunday as an east to northeast low
level flow to start the weekend veers south for the second half of
the weekend. These warmer temperatures to finish out the weekend
will also be accompanied by a noticeable jump in dew points.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A bit better chances for at least some beneficial rainfall this
period. The strong high pressure over New York and New England that
had been deflecting disturbances to our northwest over the weekend,
should be able to make some eastward progress as the ridge finally
breaks down and slides east. This will translate to chances for at
least some on and off light showers/maybe a storm or two, especially
Monday and Tuesday as a couple waves of low pressure potentially
track near or over our area. Best chances for beneficial rainfall
will be toward the Canadian border. Rain chances then lessen for the
second half of the period as high pressure tries to re-establish
itself over the region. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above
average through the period, and even a touch on the humid
side, especially first half of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across area terminals through Thursday
afternoon with an approaching cold front from the north bringing
increasing cloud cover and isolated showers. The best chance for
shower activity will be later this afternoon near KART, but will
likely be widely scattered and brief. Winds will turn out of the
north tonight behind the cold front with low-level clouds developing
leading to MVFR ceilings for most terminals. These conditions should
persist through Friday morning before slowly clearing out headed
towards midday. KJHW and terminals in the Southern Tier to Finger
Lakes regions could see IFR conditions for a period early Friday
morning.
Outlook...
Friday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR, with southern Tier valley
fog possible each overnight/early morning.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Tightening pressure gradient out ahead of an approaching weak
cold front late Thursday afternoon has brought a period of
somewhat elevated southwesterly to westerly flow with gusts
around 15 kt. Conditions this afternoon are expected to remain
below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
The cold front will then cross the Lower Great Lakes tonight...with
the freshening northerly flow in its wake bringing near-SCA to low-
end SCA conditions to eastern portions of Lake Ontario later tonight
into Friday morning.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...Brothers
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Brothers
MARINE...Brothers/JJR

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion