Ponce Inlet, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

946
FXUS62 KMLB 140022
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
822 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, MARINE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 820 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
- Scattered showers and isolated storms remain possible tonight,
  mainly along the immediate coast.
- Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue across the
  Volusia County and offshore Brevard County waters tonight. A
  High Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Rest of Today-Sunday...A sharp mid-upper level trough extending
down the eastern US will sweep across Florida, gradually
developing a mid-level cutoff low over the southeast US. A surface
low is already starting to develop over the Western Atlantic off
the southeast seaboard (looks like the ECM had the timing but the
GFS had the location) along the frontal boundary pushed south of
us in response to the trough. This is tightening the pressure
gradient across the northern half of the Florida peninsula,
producing northeasterly winds to around 20 mph with gusts to 30
mph along the Volusia coast, around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph
further inland towards the Orlando Metro, and gradually decreasing
southward to around 10 mph from Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast.
Occasionally higher winds and gusts have been seen at times.
These winds will continue through the rest of the afternoon and
most of the evening, then gradually ease through the late evening
and early overnight to 5-10 mph from the north. The pressure
gradient will ease as the surface low drifts north and east,
resulting in more moderate winds Sunday, though breezy and gusty
conditions will remain possible along the Volusia coast.
Between the trough swinging through and more northerly flow
around the developing low, drier air will continue to filter down
decreasing rain chances. Despite the low-level moisture from the
stout onshore flow today, dry air above is killing most deep
convection, and isolated to at best scattered low-top showers are
expected this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. Can`t rule out
a few lightning storms but the odds are not in favor. Onshore
moving showers will remain possible during the overnight periods,
which could get hung up on the coast leading to locally heavy
rainfall. Afternoon highs slightly below normal in the M-U80s.
Monday-Friday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Models are coming
into better agreement now that the surface low over the western
Atlantic off the Southeast seaboard attendant to the trough aloft
has started to develop. The mid-level cutoff low developing over
the Southeast in the base of the trough will help gradually deepen
the surface low as both these features drift northeastward. There
is still some difference in the exact position and timing of
these features, but given how far east the low has developed,
confidence is now very high we`ll continue to see drier air
filtering from the north, keeping our rain chances down.
First half of the week should be the quietest weather we`ve seen
in a little while (relatively speaking), with rain chances 30-40
percent Monday and 20-30 percent Tuesday. By midweek, the
aforementioned low east of the area either weakens or lifts
northeast and the cutoff low aloft also transitions N/NE. Low to
mid level flow will veer to the E/SE through mid to late week and
allow for the deeper moisture suppressed to our south to gradually
build back northward across the area, with shower and storm
chances once again increasing up to 50-70 percent by Thursday-
Friday. Highs will continue in the mid to upper 80s through next
week, with lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 810 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Rest of Today-Tonight (updated previous)...Hazardous boating
conditions continue across the Volusia Atlantic waters from NNE-NE
winds around 20 kts (30 kt gusts) and seas around 7 ft. As a
result, the Small Craft Advisory has been extended through at
least 4 AM Sunday. Small craft should exercise caution over the
offshore Brevard waters as well. Bands of showers and isolated
lightning storms will remain possible through the night, which may
cause locally higher winds/seas, also.
Sunday-Wednesday (Modified Previous Discussion)...N/NE winds
continue tomorrow into early next week, as the low pressure system
off the southeast seaboard gradually deepens while slowly shifting
N/NW. Poor boating conditions are forecast to redevelop across the
nearshore Volusia County waters Sunday as wind speeds increase
back to 15-20 knots, especially during the afternoon hours.
Otherwise, wind speeds will be generally less than 15 knots. Winds
will gradually veer to the E/NE through mid week, with wind speeds
remaining below 15 knots. Seas 3-5 feet. Coverage of showers and
storms are forecast to gradually decrease across the waters late
weekend into early next week as drier air builds into the area,
but scattered showers and occasional storms will still be
possible.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 810 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Primarily VFR to continue thru the period with intermittent MVFR
where SHRA briefly move over coastal terminals. Coastal sites
have the highest chances of SHRA and iso TS thru 06z, with mainly
SHRA brushing the coast thru 12z Sunday. NNE winds 10-15 kt with
gusts around 20 kt (locally higher in SHRA/TSRA) persist thru at
least 03z, with gradually decreasing speeds after 06z. Breezy to
gusty conditions resume Sun., especially MLB northward, with VCSH
maintained at all sites in the afternoon. Still expect largely VFR
conds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  84  71  85 /  40  40  20  30
MCO  71  87  70  88 /  20  40  10  30
MLB  73  86  73  86 /  30  40  20  30
VRB  71  87  72  87 /  30  30  20  30
LEE  70  87  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
SFB  71  86  70  87 /  30  40  20  30
ORL  71  86  71  88 /  20  40  10  30
FPR  70  87  71  88 /  30  40  20  30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-570.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Schaper

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion