Port O Connor, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

420
FXUS64 KCRP 220530
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New DISCUSSION, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Low chance (20-40%) of showers today through Tuesday, increasing
  to medium chances (30-60%) Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
No significant chances were made to the previous forecast. Low (20-
40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue today and
Tuesday, mainly in the afternoons. Models are in slightly better
agreement regarding the boundary (dare I say cold front?)
approaching South Texas by the middle of the week. Moisture will
pool ahead of the boundary, increasing rain chances to medium (30-
60%) by Wednesday. NBM currently has the winds shifting to the
north/northeast Wednesday night then continuing into Friday night.
This seems fairly reasonable, so have not edited anything too much
though I did blend in a touch of the NAM to account for this
boundary/front (90NBM/10NAM) with both the winds and the PoPs. It is
very likely that things will need to be adjusted as this feature
gets closer.
Temperatures will actually cool noticeably for parts of South
Texas behind the "cold" front, with highs across the Brush Country
dropping from near 100 to the low 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VFR conditions can be expected a majority of the TAF period. Brief
MVFR conditions will be possible between 10-14Z Monday morning for
ALI, VCT and LRD due to low cloud bases and/or patchy fog. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase late Monday
morning along the immediate coast, then shifting farther inland
along the sea breeze through late afternoon. Have kept a PROB30 for
CRP, ALI and VCT where there is up to a 30% chance of convection.
The convection may lead to brief periods of IFR/MVFR conditions and
variable gusty winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore breeze will continue through
the middle of the week. A frontal boundary is expected to move
through the area by Thursday, switching winds to a more northerly
flow before winds return to a southeasterly flow for the upcoming
weekend. There is a low to medium (30-60%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  78  93  78 /  30   0  30  10
Victoria          93  74  95  75 /  40   0  30  10
Laredo           100  77 101  78 /   0   0  10   0
Alice             97  75  97  75 /  20   0  20   0
Rockport          91  80  92  80 /  30  10  30  10
Cotulla           99  76 100  77 /   0   0  10   0
Kingsville        94  75  95  76 /  30   0  30   0
Navy Corpus       89  82  90  82 /  30  10  30  20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...TE/81

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion