Portia, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

324
FXUS64 KMEG 260449
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1149 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1148 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- Drier and cooler air will filter in resulting in pleasant
  conditions this weekend and into next week.
- Highs will remain in the upper 70s and low 80s through Saturday,
  gradually warming into the upper 80s next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The upper trough that has brought the rainy weather over the past
few days is currently exiting the region to the east. This
afternoon`s showers have also mostly dissipated with isolated
showers lasting through the rest of the night within the TN River
Valley. Some potential exists for patchy fog tonight, especially
in low-lying areas, as high surface humidity and clearing skies
allow for decent radiational cooling conditions. Short-range
guidance shows surface winds near 5 knots through the night, but
current surface observations show winds are nearly calm across
much of the region. So, if light winds and the clearing of skies
continues, we could see regions of patchy fog through this
morning.
High pressure will build in over the next few days, bringing drier
weather to the Mid-South in the meantime. Models are in agreement
that the upper pattern will continue to be quite stagnant as the
main belt of polar westerlies over Canada. As a consequence, the
upper low moving out of the region will only make it to GA/AL over
the next few days, keeping daily highs in the upper 70s to low
80s through this weekend.
The tropics are beginning to light up with two named storms
(Humberto and Gabrielle) and one invest (94L). The NHC gives
Invest 94L, which is just north of the Dominican Republic, a 80%
chance of forming into Imelda over the next 48 hours. Looking at
both the GFS/ECMWF and hurricane- specific models (HAFS/HMON/HWRF),
numerous solutions bring the soon-to-be Imelda up to the Carolina
Coastline late Monday, sandwiched between the cutoff upper low
and Humberto. Imelda is expected to then merge with the upper low,
keeping upper troughing over the eastern CONUS and marginal
impacts to our weather. However, it will allow for upper heights
to be suppressed and daily highs to only climb into the mid to
upper 80s. Eventually, all three lows will make their way out into
the Atlantic with surface high pressure sliding into the eastern
CONUS in their wake. Although forecast uncertainty increases
regarding specific surface features, a couple backdoor cold fronts
are possible later next week, once again keeping hotter
temperatures at bay and potentially bringing the next chances for
rain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Primary aviation concern overnight is IFR VIS outside of MEM.
Patchy valley fog was noted at 04Z over north central AR.
A combination of weak mixing and urban heat island effect should
keep MEM VFR overnight, while clearing skies and cool air drainage
may increase fog potential at MKL. Finally, IFR CIGs appear
probable for at least part of the overnight at TUP under a slow-
moving upper level trough.
VFR should prevail through the day Friday, with sunshine and
relatively dry northerly surface winds.
PWB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
No major fire weather concerns through at least this weekend, as
recent rains have saturated soils. Dry conditions will return into
next week, so some minor fire danger concerns could return to the
area.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion