Presidio, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

002
FXUS64 KMAF 021945
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Above normal temperatures and dry weather conditions will
  continue across the region through early next week.
- A cold front is possible late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning,
  and may bring slightly cooler temperatures and a very slight
  chance of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VIS/IR satellite imagery depicts another mostly clear early
afternoon over the CWA today. Dew point temperatures remain in the
mid 40s to mid 50s F. This along with the mostly sunny skies allow
highs to again rise into the upper 80s F to mid 90s F, lower to mid
80s F higher elevations, and mid to upper 90s F along Rio Grande.
Due to strengthening mid to upper ridging, highs a few degrees
warmer than yesterday can be expected. However, lee troughing
strengthening across SE NM into W TX will allow development of
breezier winds this afternoon/evening before winds decrease
overnight. Lows fall into mid 50s F higher elevations, basins of
Culberson County, and usual cooler spots of northern SE NM plains
into northwest Permian Basin, with lower to mid 60s F elsewhere, as
continuing low dew point temperatures below 60 F coupled with light
winds allow for efficient overnight cooling despite unseasonably
warm daytime highs. Cooler high temperatures and breezy winds are
forecast Friday as lee troughing strengthen more and winds back to
more easterly upslope flow. This will translate to highs mid 80s F
higher elevations into SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin,
lower 90s F most of Permian Basin and Upper Trans Pecos into
Stockton Plateau and Terrell County, and lower to mid 809s F Rio
Grande basins. Despite more easterly winds and breezy conditions
across higher terrain, dew point temperatures will remain below mid
50s F. This will again enable lows to fall as low or a few degrees
lower than tonight tomorrow night, except for lower elevations of
the easternmost CWA where lows may only fall into the mid to upper
60s F. Rain chances remain near zero for the period, and that is not
expected to change anytime soon. More on this in the long term
discussion.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Not much change in the long term, which remains relatively dry.
Saturday, the upper trough will pass through the Four Corners,
maintaining southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico.  As the trough pivots east, thicknesses will decrease a
skosh, shaving a degree or so off of Friday`s highs.
Sunday, a secondary trough begins developing over the west coast,
strengthening southwest flow aloft over the region.  Models increase
thicknesses slightly, yielding perhaps the warmest day of the
extended as highs plateau ~ 8-10 F above climatology.
Monday/Tuesday, highs will be a degree or two lower than Sunday, yet
well above normal.  Tuesday evening, West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico are forecast to reside on the northwest periphery of a ridge
centered over the Gulf of America, and long range models hint at
convection developing over the northern zones as minor shortwaves
rotate around the ridge.  Early Wednesday morning, a cold front is
forecast to enter the area, providing an assist to convective
chances, first in the north, then farther south during the
afternoon.  Despite this, however, chances remain about as minimal
as they get.  The GFS is a little stronger w/the front than the
ECMWF/CMC, but all these should combine to produce NBM highs
Wednesday/Thursday of only 2-3 F above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions with no rain forecast for all terminals.
South/southeast winds at terminals by 19Z-23Z, increasing in speed
and becoming breezy near or above 12 knots during this same
period. Winds then decrease 01Z-06Z and remain light before again
increasing 15Z into end of period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               63  91  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 62  89  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   64  92  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            63  91  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           60  81  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    60  88  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    53  82  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     64  91  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   64  90  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     61  90  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...94

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion