Preston, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

549
FXUS63 KSGF 070557
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1257 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather continues through at least this week. Extended
  model guidance suggests below-average precipitation may
  continue well into the month of September.
- There is high confidence that above-average temperatures will
  return by the middle of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
An upper-level trough axis was centered across the Mississippi
Valley early this morning, leaving southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas under northwest flow aloft. This setup will
keep temperatures unseasonably cool today. Clear skies and
quiet weather continue today as surface high pressure dominates
the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
There has been little change to note in the ensemble suite for
the long-term forecast; temperatures will gradually warm
throughout the week, and largely dry conditions will persist.
Global models continues to depict a weak shortwave impulse
diving through the Plains Monday into Tuesday, helping to
initiate convection as it does so. However, a dry airmass across
southwest Missouri will likely preclude any meaningful rainfall
from occurring in our area. Indeed, global ensembles (and even
the extended CAMs) show very little to nothing in terms of QPF
across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. The relative
"best" chances for seeing any precipitation will be across our
southeast Kansas counties late Monday into early Tuesday. The
LREF grand ensemble depicts 40-50% chances of receiving at least
0.01" of rain confined mainly to southeast Kansas, but
probabilities drop below 30% of receiving even a tenth of an
inch of total rainfall through this period. So, while a few
sprinkles may be possible, any meaningful rainfall is not
anticipated at this time.
Beyond Tuesday, ensembles are generally in good agreement in
developing a ridge across the central CONUS through the end of
the week. Not only will this keep our area dry, it will also
allow for steadily increasing temperatures. NBM percentiles
support highs near 90 degrees Wednesday into the weekend. For
reference, climatological average high temperatures for this
time of year are in the 80 to 84 degree range. These warm
temperatures combined with the lack of meaningful rainfall may
exacerbate drought expansion across the region. Furthermore,
extended ECMWF and GEFS runs both suggest below-average
precipitation anomalies continuing well into the month of
September.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR conditions through the TAF period with clear skies and light
winds prevailing out of the northeast this afternoon, shifting
to the southeast toward 06Z Monday.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion