Pulaski, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

434
FXUS64 KOHX 241620
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1120 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1039 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances through Thursday.
  Low threat for severe storms, a few could produce strong winds
  and heavy downpours.
- There is a low to medium chance of localized flash flooding
  with the pockets of heaviest rainfall.
- Low rain chances for the eastern third of the area over the
  weekend. Most of the area will be dry.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1039 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Showers and thunderstorms are limited to our SW this morning, but
will spread N and E through the afternoon. Latest mesoanalysis
shows a plume of PWATs between 1.70-2.00 inches across the CWA,
with the highest amounts in the SW. The severe threat remains low
through the afternoon, as cloud cover is limiting instability and
lapse rates remain poor. We still have around 20-30 kts of
effective bulk shear, so that will help with storm development
and a provide a low wind threat with the strongest storms. Latest
CAMs have been trying to narrow down timing of storms and seem to
be coming into agreement on two waves of clusters of storms moving
through Middle TN. The first main clusters of storms look to work
their way through this afternoon, and move past the Plateau
tonight. Another cluster of storms move through late tonight
and continue through early Thursday morning. We will have to see
how this trends with later runs.
The main threat other then possibly some strong winds and perhaps
some small hail with the strongest storms, will be excessive
rainfall as we go through the afternoon and overnight.
Contemplated a Flood Watch for Middle TN, but given the
uncertainty of which locations will see the heaviest rainfall,
decided to just message the flooding potential and issue
Advisories and/or Warnings as needed rather than covering everyone
in a Watch.
Going into Thursday, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain
over Middle TN as our upper trough and associated surface front
slowly swings through. Not expecting any severe storms with this.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1039 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Drying begins to take place Thursday night as our upper trough
shifts off to the east. Some low chances for isolated showers
will be possible through the weekend, but mainly limited to east
of I-65, as some energy lags behind the upper trough. That said,
most will remain dry through the weekend. Heading into next week,
some low chances of rain over the Plateau stick around, but
mostly dry weather will set in over Middle TN. Temperatures will be
pleasant, but mild, in the mid 80s west of the Plateau. Overnight
lows will be cool, dropping into the 50s and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions this morning lower to MVFR through the evening as
showers and thunderstorms return. Low CIGs look to move in tonight
after 03z, bringing IFR conditions across Middle TN. Confidence
is low with showers and thunderstorm timing through the TAF
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  69  82  62 /  60  80  40  10
Clarksville    84  67  80  57 /  80  80  40  10
Crossville     76  64  74  59 /  70  90  70  30
Columbia       83  67  81  59 /  70  80  50  10
Cookeville     79  66  76  61 /  70  90  60  30
Jamestown      78  65  75  59 /  70  90  70  20
Lawrenceburg   82  67  80  59 /  80  80  50  10
Murfreesboro   83  68  81  61 /  70  80  50  10
Waverly        82  65  78  55 /  80  80  40  10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Cravens

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion