Quechee, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

074
FXUS61 KBTV 241030
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
630 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue across northern New York and
Vermont through Friday. Widespread rain is expected on Thursday
as a low pressure system passes to our northwest. Overall drier
weather is expected from Saturday onwards. Temperatures will be
above seasonal normals through the period.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...Low pressure and stationary front
will remain south of our forecast area today, with weak high
pressure ridging into the northern New York and Vermont area
from the northeast. Some scattered light rain showers will be
possible today in our most southerly zones, but most of the
precipitation should stay south of our area. Some breaks in the
clouds this afternoon should allow temperatures to warm into the
lower 70s across our northern zones this afternoon while areas
south remain in the upper 60s. As we head into the overnight
hours, a low pressure system over the Ohio River valley will
track northeastward towards our forecast area. During the second
half of the overnight, after about 2 am, rain will spread into
our area from the southwest. This initial area of showers will
lift north of our area by about 11 am. Right behind this area of
showers will be additional scattered showers, some with
embedded thunder possible for Thursday afternoon. Rain may be
heavy at times. Rainfall areawide should be around three
quarters of an inch, with some areas having around an inch of
rain. Rain showers will continue into the evening on Thursday.
Best chance for thunder appears to be Thursday afternoon across
eastern Vermont where we will have some surface instability
develop. Temperatures on Thursday will be a bit cooler than
today due to lots of clouds and rain across the area, generally
upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...Showers should come to an end by
about midnight Thursday night as cold front pushes east of our
region. A secondary reinforcing cold front will cross the area
on Friday. Tough to completely rule out a shower on Friday as
this surface feature crosses the area, but definitely don`t
expect widespread precipitation like we`ll have Thursday. Have
just a chance for showers mentioned, and temperatures will warm
back through the 70s again even with northwesterly flow in
place.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 138 AM EDT Wednesday...Ridging and high pressure are
expected to build in across the region late this week and into
the weekend, bringing dry and cooler (though still above
average) weather Friday night and Saturday night as lows fall
into the mid 40s and 50s. Saturday should be pleasant, dry, and
warm, then an upper trough is anticipated to swing across
eastern Canada, mainly to our north, on Saturday night and
Sunday.
Chances for measurable precipitation with this feature remain
low, around 10-25%, most likely in the mountains. Highs over the
weekend will likely remain above average in the 70s to low 80s.
High pressure and therefore dry weather are forecast to
continue into the first half of next week as temperatures take a
slow decline towards seasonable normals, with highs going from
the 70s Monday to mostly 60s by midweek. Lows will also fall
from the 40s and 50s Sunday night to the 30s and 40s later.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12z Thursday...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions expected
to continue over the next few hours this morning due to calm
winds, plentiful surface moisture, and high pressure. Currently,
fog and low stratus are producing IFR and lower restrictions at
all sites except MSS, which has scattered out its low level
cloud layer. However, low vis and cigs remain in the area, so it
is not out of the question for MSS to have another period of IFR
or lower conditions before they make a steady return to VFR.
Most likely period of VFR conditions at MSS will be around 16Z
Wednesday through 02Z Thursday.
At other sites, IFR should last until around 13Z-17Z Wednesday,
then a period of VFR with perhaps some MVFR SCT clouds hanging
around from 18Z Wednesday through 03Z Thursday at BTV, PBG, and
EFK. Sites SLK, MPV, and RUT are the most likely spots to keep
MVFR ceilings for most of the day. Ceilings are forecast to
lower again this upcoming night as shower chances return 17Z
Wednesday onwards associated with a warm frontal boundary and
development of an atmospheric inversion. We`ll see widespread
MVFR return with the potential for IFR conditions to return in
both fog/rain visibilities and ceilings from low stratus. Winds
will be light out of the north and east this morning, often
driven by local terrain influences. More steady southeasterly
flow will pick up this afternoon and evening 5-15 knots.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA, Patchy BR.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion