Quemado, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

160
FXUS64 KEWX 050014
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
714 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures continue through the 2nd week of October
  with low end (10-20%) rain chances Monday-Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
The latest GOES 19 mid-level water vapor imagery shows an upper
level low situated over the northern Gulf and a broad trough
centered over Utah. For now, our region remains in a bit of a
deadzone with not much steering flow over the southern part of the
state. The short term period will be warm and dry with increased
southeasterly surface flow beginning this afternoon and continuing
through Sunday night. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to
mid 90s today and tomorrow, but at least the mornings will be
somewhat comfortable, generally in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
The long term period is not particularly exciting either. The UL
low over the northern Gulf will weaken and push east, quickly
being replaced by mid-level ridging. Increased surface moisture
will result in low end rain chances at showers on Monday over the
Coastal Plains and then further inland Tuesday-Thursday. A weak
cold front will attempt to slide in from the northeast late
Wednesday, but is unlikely to make much progress into our region.
That means a return to warm and dry weather Friday-next weekend.
Our drought continues to worsen due to a lack of recent rainfall
since mid- August, so hopefully a pattern change is on the horizon
at some point towards the middle of month.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
VFR skies will continue through the overnight hours. At daybreak,
some spotty low clouds may appear over I-35, and a patch of MVFR
cigs are projected for DRT. Mixing picks up from 15Z to 18Z
leading to winds trending from E to SE at DRT while they trend
from variable to E or ENE over I-35. The well mixed winds are in
response to a weak gyre over the NW Gulf, and the surface directions
will likely veer again at the end of the TAF periods.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              67  94  70  92 /   0   0   0  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  93  69  92 /   0   0   0  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  93  68  92 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            65  88  67  88 /   0   0   0  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           68  92  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        65  91  68  91 /   0   0   0  20
Hondo Muni Airport             65  92  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  94  68  93 /   0   0   0  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  93  69  92 /   0  10   0  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  92  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           70  94  72  94 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...18

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion