Quinter, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

417
FXUS63 KGLD 201816
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1216 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few showers/storms are possible in northeast CO late this
  afternoon. A strong storm can`t be ruled out.
- Nocturnal storms may develop over far eastern portions of the
  area (e.g. Graham/Norton counties) between midnight and
  sunrise Sunday morning. Locally heavy rainfall possible.
  Severe weather not expected.
- Another chance for fog, possibly dense, Sunday morning.
- Strong to severe storms may return to the area Monday
  afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Synoptic Overview: A complex, disjointed synoptic pattern
characterized by (1) a sinuous, speedy northern stream jet at
higher latitudes in Canada and (2) a speedy, increasingly
sinuous southern stream jet along the southern Pacific Coast,
Desert Southwest and 4-Corners.. will prevail over the weekend.
While the Tri-State area will be in closest proximity to the
southern stream jet, the nearby presence of (and interaction
with) a fractured branch of the northern stream jet..
manifesting as a broad, complex upper low / cyclonic flow aloft
over the Northern Plains.. introduces additional
complexity/uncertainty with regard to forecast specifics.
Today: As of 17 UTC, widespread morning stratus has finally
lifted/scattered-out in most locations, except southern portions
of the area (along/south of Hwy 40).. in closer proximity to
ongoing elevated showers south of Hwy 96 (Hamilton/Kearney
counties). Weak forcing and a considerable amount of convective
inhibition (~100-300 J/kg MLCIN) will likely preclude in-situ
convective development across the majority of the area today.
Scattered diurnal convection emanating from the Colorado Front
Range, Cheyenne Ridge and/or Palmer Divide may track E (via ~15
knot W steering flow) into portions of eastern CO during the
mid-late afternoon, when/ where MLCIN will be weaker (~25-50
J/kg). Even if this occurs, convection would likely weaken.. and
ultimately dissipate.. with eastern extent (especially east of
the CO-KS border). Modest instability/shear (500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE, 20-30 KT EBWD) and moderately steep (~7.5 C/km) mid-
level lapse rates are not particularly conducive for severe
weather in the context of this setup, though.. brief/transient
updraft organization is a possibility in eastern CO.
Tonight: To be posted.
Sunday: To be posted.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Long range guidance continues to suggest that a closed low will
develop over the central-northern Rockies/High Plains early
next week. If this is the case, one would expect active/ dynamic
weather. Below average confidence in forecast specifics.
Forecast confidence typically decreases with range. Below
average, in this context, is intended to communicate a further
reduction in confidence associated with /inherent-to/ increased
pattern complexity, e.g. patterns characterized by cut-off waves
and multi-branched jet/wave interactions, among other factors.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1040 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
GLD: IFR ceilings (at 1630 UTC) will continue to improve late
this morning.. with VFR conditions anticipated to return by
early afternoon. Light/variable or SE winds and VFR conditions
are expected through sunset this evening. Guidance suggests that
LIFR stratus/fog will return late this evening and overnight
(generally after 06Z), and that improvement is unlikely until
late Sunday morning.. near the end of the TAF period.
MCK: MVFR ceilings (at 1630 UTC) will continue to improve late
this morning.. with VFR conditions anticipated to return by
early afternoon. Light/variable or SE winds and VFR conditions
are expected through sunset this evening. Guidance suggests that
LIFR stratus/fog will return late this evening and overnight
(generally after 06Z), and that improvement is unlikely until
late Sunday morning.. near the end of the TAF period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion