Ralls, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

275
FXUS64 KLUB 281110
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
610 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms developing over NM and
   tracking into our region late this evening through early
   Monday morning.
- Slight cooling in temperatures Sunday and Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Current radar imagery shows showers over eastern NM tracking
northeast. Chances for showers to track into western portions of our
region will continue through the early morning hours. The upper
level low spinning over the Desert Southwest is expected to open up
as it tracks northeast over the Central Plains through today. This
will gradually shift upper level flow from the west to south as the
upper trough approaches the region. On the surface, south to
southeast flow will prevail. Southerly surface upslope flow will aid
in showers and thunderstorms developing over eastern NM late this
evening into early Monday morning. There are slight chances for any
storms that develop will track across the state line into our two
farthest west columns of counties. Although southerly winds will
usher in warmer air, we will see a slight cool down in temperatures
today, especially on the Caprock, due to mostly cloudy skies. Highs
will be in the lower to mid 80s on the Caprock and upper 80s off the
Caprock. Besides the chances for storms along the NM/TX border, the
rest of the CWA will be quiet with lingering clouds and mild lows in
the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The upper trough will continue to track eastward over the region
Monday. This will prolong the mostly cloudy skies and slightly cool
temperatures for the day. High temperatures on Monday will range
from the mid to upper 70s over northwestern zones of the CWA and
upper 80s for southeastern zones. However, these cooler temperatures
will not last long. As the upper troughing moves away from the
region, upper ridging will build over southwestern CONUS and
northern Mexico with the eastern edge clipping the Texas Panhandle.
Height and thickness increases from the upper ridging will warm
temperatures back into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region
by Wednesday. On top of warmer than normal temperatures, the upper
ridging will keep precipitation chances near zero. Models differ on
the upper pattern for the latter half of the week. Both GFS and
ECMWF have a potent low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest on
Thursday. ECMWF has the low opening into a trough and expanding
south as it tracks over western CONUS. GFS has the low swinging over
the Intermountain West. However, either pattern gives the same
outcome of warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions as
both push the upper ridging directly over the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...51

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion