Rapid City, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

769
FXUS63 KUNR 071653
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1053 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and very warm through Tuesday.
- Increasing chances for precipitation late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
08Z upper analysis has a deep trof across the Great Lakes and a
ridge over the Northern Rockies. In between, fast northwest upper
flow is present across the Northern Plains. Skies are currently
mostly clear. At the surface, high pressure resides across the
central CONUS, with a weak lee trof developing across central
Montana. Temperatures at 2 AM are in the 40s and 50s across the
forecast area, with light south to southeast winds.
Upper ridge over the Rockies will shift into the Northern Plains
today into Monday, as surface lee trof strengthens across Montana
and Wyoming. Temperatures will climb to above average today with
southeast winds becoming 10-20 mph by afternoon. Dry and very
warm conditions will continue into Monday and Tuesday. Some smoke
from the Canadian wildfires may move back into the area for
Monday.
Upper ridge axis will shift just east of the forecast area by
Wednesday, exposing the area to southwest upper flow. Weak energy
ejecting out of the western trof will cross the area, bringing
very small chances for showers and isolated storms. At this time,
best chances for scattered precipitation look to be Wednesday
into Wednesday night, and late Thursday night into Friday.
By next weekend, models have the western trof lift northeastward
and become somewhat inverted over the Northern Rockies into the
Northern Plains, giving the area its best chance for more
widespread precipitation. The Canadian model keeps the trof more
progressive, but develops a weak upper low over the area, which
gives the same result - better chances for precip over the
weekend. Will have to monitor the evolution of this trof over the
next several days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1052 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions are expected through Monday.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...Smith

NWS UNR Office Area Forecast Discussion