Ravenscroft, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

405
FXUS64 KOHX 140543
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1243 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
- Low chance for rain and storms throughout the day. Some gusty
  winds are possible, but overall impacts will be little to none.
- Afternoon highs remain a few degrees above normal through most
  of the week.
- Low to medium rain chances for the second half of next week with
  temperatures starting to regulate slightly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
The 00Z balloon launch revealed a very dry atmospheric column in
place due to high pressure anchored across east Tennessee. As we
move into the overnight hours, a shortwave that is currently
rippling along the ridge aloft will continue its dive south,
bringing scattered showers to the area after midnight. Though the
air is currently very dry with a measured PWAT of 0.98", a plume
of moisture embedded within the ridge is working its way east at
this time, and this will help bring PWAT values back up near 1.50"
tomorrow. Showers tonight will initially favor the
north/northeast quadrant of the CWA, and as additional moisture
pushes in tomorrow afternoon, better shower/storm coverage will
develop across our western half. Soundings reveal a thin layer of
moisture in the mid-levels gradually filling in throughout the
day. Similar to previous days where we`ve had scattered storms, a
few inverted-V profiles are appearing in the 00Z CAMs, primarily
across the west where surface temps look to be the warmest
tomorrow, so some gusty winds could be possible in the strongest
storms. Though rainfall does not look substantial, hey, we`ll take
what we can get.
Pockets of showers and a few rumbles of thunder will carry us into
Sunday night with a few showers lingering into the overnight
hours. By Monday, we will be sandwiched between a meandering
upper low over the east coast and large ridging to our west.
Though chances still look low, another shot at rain and storms
looks possible Monday afternoon. Again, nothing widespread or
terribly impactful, but the airmass in the wake of the shortwave
passage will still be a moist and unstable one.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
The long term forecast continues to favor above-normal
temperatures and below-normal precipitation. Beyond Monday, upper
level ridging really dominates our weather through Thursday.
Mostly dry with continued warmth as highs during this time will
generally be in the low 90s with overnight lows in the 60s. Long
range guidance is suggesting a trough over the midwest will push
across the southeast by Friday with its influence carrying into
the weekend. Some disagreements exist in the exact placement of
the upper low during this time, but the pattern is generally the
same. This feature would likely mean an uptick in rain and cooler
temperatures. The NBM currently yields a 20-30% PoP during this
time which seems reasonable at this point in the forecast. As
mentioned by the previous forecaster, current high temperatures
given by the NBM during this time do appear on the high side, but
given some of the aforementioned uncertainty, will likely keep for
now and monitor trends through this week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Updated TAFs to include prob30 groups for thunderstorms today. A
shortwave trough will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms
early this morning and through the afternoon Sunday. Latest
satellite imagery shows storms moving into northern Kentucky at
time of writing and pushing south. That said, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail for the remainder of tonight, with little to
no fog expected to develop. Winds continue to favor the SE between
5-7 kts Sunday. There is a low chance for dry downbursts causing gusty
and erratic winds with any storms that develop through the
afternoon Sunday, given the amount of dry air just above the
surface.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  67  92  65 /  20   0   0   0
Clarksville    94  67  94  64 /  20  20  10   0
Crossville     79  58  82  59 /  20   0  10  10
Columbia       91  66  90  63 /  20  20  10  10
Cookeville     81  61  85  61 /  20   0  10   0
Jamestown      80  60  84  60 /  20   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   88  64  88  61 /  10  10  10   0
Murfreesboro   87  65  90  63 /  10   0   0   0
Waverly        92  66  91  64 /  20  20  10   0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Cravens

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion