Reading, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

389
FXUS63 KTOP 091719
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms increase in coverage across
  eastern Kansas later this morning into early afternoon. While
  severe weather is not anticipated, locally heavy rainfall is
  possible.
- Highs warm above normal values in the low 90s Thursday through the
  weekend mostly dry conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Active upper air pattern observed on water vapor imagery this
morning as several short wave troughs are noted throughout the
central CONUS. Amid northwest aloft, an incoming wave over southern
NE enters northeast Kansas shortly before sunrise. A cluster of
associated thunderstorms is the focus for the short term forecast
this morning as latest CAMs vary on the coverage and extent of
precipitation as it tracks through eastern Kansas. The environment
is supportive of storms maintaining themselves given the steepening
mid level lapse rates and decent isentropic ascent through mid
morning. PWAT values increase to near 1.6 inches while deep moisture
transport enhances after 12Z, lending to the concern for locally
heavy rainfall with the convection. Fortunately compared to
yesterday, convection movement is more progressive as increasing
subsidence ends the rainfall in the afternoon. Severe hail or wind
threat is low with this activity as MUCAPE values are below 1000
J/KG and effective shear is generally around 30 kts.
Highs today will largely depend on duration of rainfall and cloud
cover. If showers linger longer into the afternoon, it may restrain
temps to the 70s whereas if storms exit by lunchtime, highs in the
low 80s are more likely.
An additional MCS forms off of the higher terrain this evening,
potentially impacting portions of central Kansas by sunrise
Wednesday morning. Slight pops seemed prudent given the varying
solutions of where convection forms and the southeastward track
trending more towards central/southern Kansas.
Upper ridge currently over the Intermountain West gradually shifts
into the central plains mid week onward. Cannot rule out scattered
showers and storms Wednesday night as an embedded wave rounds the
eastern edge of the ridge. Model solutions are varied on the
location of the ridge and subsequent lift extent for precipitation
so have opted for slight pops in north central Kansas. These may
need to be increased or adjusted as additional short term guidance
comes in.  Upper ridge becomes more dominant Thursday afternoon into
the weekend, ushering southerly warm advection and boosting highs to
the lower 90s. An expansive upper low deepening over the western
conus reintroduces precip chances and somewhat cooler temps by early
Sunday into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
MVFR stratus and rain has moved out of the terminals with
expectations to remain VFR through the period. Some scattered to
broken decks of 4kft cu may develop this afternoon and evening
per forecast soundings, but not anticipating much lower. There
will be some low-end chances for showers and VCTS later
Wednesday morning, mainly near KMHK, but confidence is low in
this occurring so kept out of TAFs at this time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Griesemer

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion