Rentz, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

709
FXUS62 KFFC 151048
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
648 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Key Messages
- The majority of north and central Georgia will be dry today
   and Tuesday.
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur in the mountains
   of northeast Georgia between 3 PM and 8 PM today and Tuesday.
Today through Tuesday:
The weather in Georgia will be dictated by a cut off low along the
coast of the Carolinas over the next 48 hours. Pressure gradients
between the low and a weak area of high pressure west of the
Appalachians will continue to produce northeast winds in the state.
These winds will advect in lower surface dewpoints and limit the
potential for convection in north and central Georgia. Thus the
majority of north and central Georgia will remain dry through
Tuesday. While surface dewpoints remain depressed, precipitable
water values will inch slowly upwards, hovering near 1.2 inches today
and 1.3 inches on Tuesday. This mid and high level moisture will
combine with diurnal heating and weak upslope flow to produce a few
showers in the mountains of northeast Georgia today and Tuesday. On
both days showers are most probable during the afternoon (between 3
PM and 8 PM). Instability (SBCAPE near 500 j/kg) may be sufficient
for a few lightning strikes both days. Severe weather is not
anticipated due to poor lapse rates and limited shear. Anyone going
up to the mountains should be prepared for some rain showers and
possible lighting.
Temperatures will remain steady state through Tuesday. Afternoon
highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s, and morning lows will be
in the lower 60. Higher elevations in the mountains will see highs
in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Dewpoints in the 50s will keep the
humidity modest and allow temps to cool quickly each evening.
Albright
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Key Messages:
- Dry pattern continues with no meaningful precipitation
   potentially through much of the longterm outlook.
- Highs in the mid 80s and even low 90s, potential cool down
   back to the low 80s next weekend.
The cutoff upper level low over the southeast will continue to
provide weak cyclogenetic support for the sfc low off the Carolinas.
Very weak moisture wrapping around the low may reach the far
northeast Georgia mountains each afternoon through Wednesday, though
PoPs remain below 20%. No appreciable rainfall is expected with
this.
As we move into the mid late week, the upper level weakens and moves
northeastward. Ridging briefly strengthens and temperatures climb to
near 90 by Friday before further upper level wave breaks drive
shortwave energy across the eastern CONUS. While we could see some
precipitation with these shortwaves, moisture will be limited
greatly to whatever dredges may be transported out of the middle
Mississippi and southern Midwest. Ensembles continue to indicated
PoPs of around 20 to 30 percent on Saturday, however PoPs through
the weekend (including Friday) will likely flip-flop over the coming
days. Any precipitation that does for will also likely not be
widespread or soaking in nature.
Limited precipitation and warm/sunny days have primed much of the
area, especially western Georgia, for rapid onset drought over the
coming days weeks. The current Lawn and Garden Moisture Index also
shows poor soil moisture conditions for lawn and garden health
without supplemental watering. Without a widespread and soaking
rainfall relatively soon, drought development will become
increasingly likely.
SM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
VFR conditions will linger in north and central Georgia through at
least 18Z Tuesday. Winds will continue to be from the east
northeast (060-120 degrees) at 3 to 9 kt. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms could briefly reduce the visibility in the mountains
of northeast Georgia between 19Z and 23Z today.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence in all elements of the KATL TAF.
Albright
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          84  62  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         86  65  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     79  58  77  57 /  20  10  20   0
Cartersville    88  64  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        89  64  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     84  63  83  62 /   0   0  10   0
Macon           86  63  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            89  64  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  87  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         87  62  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Albright

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion