Research Triangle Park, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

463
FXUS62 KRAH 131712
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
110 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to our north will extend down through the Mid
Atlantic and the Carolinas through Tuesday, although a weak upper
level low settling over the Carolinas will bring periods of clouds
each day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...
Patchy fog is possible across the northern Piedmont and northern
Coastal Plain through early this morning, with a few sites
(including TDF, LHZ and HNZ) currently or recently reporting reduced
visibilities. Based on latest HREF probabilities as well as the
HRRR, the best chance will be in the far NE Piedmont near the VA
border, essentially where fog has already developed. However, the
area should remain fairly small, and widespread dense fog is not
expected. Any fog will dissipate by 8-9 AM.
Surface high pressure will remain centered near SE WV today and
tonight, with ridging continuing to extend SW from the North
Atlantic down the US East Coast and into the southern Mid-Atlantic.
Meanwhile a stationary front will persist off the Southeast US
coast, with an area of low pressure developing near the Bahamas and
drifting north to become centered east of the NC/SC coastline.
Looking aloft, a narrow mid/upper trough will remain anchored along
the Southeast US coastline, keeping any rain chances right at the
coast or offshore, as deep dry air and below-normal PW values
persist across central NC. Only some scattered to broken cumulus and
high clouds are expected, mainly in the east. Continued NE low-level
flow and similar low-level thicknesses to yesterday mean another day
of near to slightly below normal temperatures is expected, with
highs mostly in the lower-80s (maybe some upper-70s near the VA
border). Decent radiational cooling conditions will again drop
tonight`s lows into the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...
Little change in the weather pattern is expected on Sunday and
Sunday night. The mid/upper trough will begin to close off into a
low near the GA/northern FL coast and slowly drift NE to near the
NC/SC coast by Monday morning. At the surface, the low will remain
stationary east of the coast of the Carolinas, as ridging continues
to extend into central NC from the NE. With central NC still under
the influence of this ridging and on the dry backside of the
mid/upper trough/low, below-normal PW values will continue to
prevail. So only some scattered mid and high clouds are expected,
which will begin to increase in coverage on Sunday night. Forecast
temperatures are slightly warmer than today, with highs in the lower-
to-mid-80s and lows in the upper-50s to lower-60s. This is near
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM Saturday...
* Near to slightly below normal temperatures to start the work week,
  before returning to above normal temperatures.
* Isolated to scattered showers possible Monday evening through
  Wednesday night, with the best chance in the east.
A backdoor front now looks to stay to our north on Monday, while a
coastal low should form from a stalled frontal system off the coast.
This low should influence the weather in central NC for much of the
long term period. While there is still large spread in the location
and movement of the low, it looks more likely that rain will be
possible further inland, and not just confined to the coast.
Isolated to scattered showers look to be possible Monday evening
through Thursday night, with the best chance in the east on Tuesday
and Wednesday.
In terms of temperatures, the long term period will start out near
normal on Monday. This means that highs Monday afternoon should be
in the low 80s. Temperatures will drop a few degrees on Tuesday and
Wednesday, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s to low 80s each
afternoon. After the coastal low moves to our north, temperatures
look to warm back up into the 80s to end the work week. Low
temperatures each night are expected to range from the upper 50s to
the low-to-mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 PM Saturday...
VFR conditions are likely to hold across central NC for the next 24
hours. An offshore frontal zone and and upper level trough sitting
over the Mid Atlantic and eastern Carolinas will result in greater
cloud cover (sct-bkn) along and east of Hwy 1, affecting FAY/RWI
into RDU, but cloud bases will be VFR, with scattered daytime
cumulus in the SE and high level cloudiness over our eastern half.
We`ll see these clouds spreading slowly W/inland and further into
central NC over the next 24 hours, while patchy mid level clouds
will drift in from the NW tonight into Sun. But VFR conditions
should hold at all TAF sites, with a low chance of any early-morning
fog, except perhaps in the far NE, N of RDU/RWI. Surface winds will
remain from the NE or ENE the rest of today at 6-12 kts, with a few
15-20 kt gusts E (mainly FAY/RWI), before becoming light/variable
after nightfall and from the N or N Sun under 10 kts.
Looking beyond 18z Sun, VFR conditions are likely to dominate into
the middle of next week, with fair skies except for sct-bkn VFR
clouds each afternoon. Mid and high clouds are expected to increase
with patchy afternoon showers possible Tue/Wed as a weak upper level
low settles over the Carolinas. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Hartfield

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion