Revere, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

020
FXUS63 KMPX 210759
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
259 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon/evening, a small chance
for strong/severe storms mainly in southern MN.
- Mild temperatures through the period with little weather after
  showers end on Monday.&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The upper level low which has dominated the weather pattern over the
last few days continues to be visible on GOES-E water vapor imagery,
centered around eastern NoDak and northwestern MN border as of
around 245am. This feature is expected to continue to migrate
eastwards throughout the day, setting up another round of isolated
showers and potential thunderstorms as a strengthening 850-700mb jet
introduces lower level forcing later in the day. Forecast soundings
from the RAP/NAM show around 1000 J/KG MLCAPE around 21z near RWF
with low to moderate deep layer shear and lapse rates, such that
isolated storms are possible. There is enough instability and shear
to produce some stronger updrafts, with the primary question being
if anything holds together long enough to sustain any sort of severe
weather threat. SHARPpy sounding analogs show a few instances of
severe hail with this kind of setup, however it looks to be a case
of one or two storms that become strong enough rather than the
majority of showers and storms that appear. Given all of this
together, the upgrade to a SWODY1 marginal risk that includes the
southern Twin Cities metro seems like a good call, with hail being
the only real threat as low level shear looks rather weak and
PWat/DCAPE don`t support a significant wind threat. The tornado
threat is non-zero but quite low, right now below the 2% threshold
that SPC uses within their outlooks, however there is some
possibility there given the favorable hodograph shape and low LCL
height, however any sort of funnel cloud or tornadic threat would
likely be limited to the bottom end of the scale in terms of
strength due mainly to the weakness of potential updrafts overall.
The peak timing for this threat is generally late afternoon through
the evening, with lingering showers and a few storms overnight that
will be much weaker as the forcing weakens.
Isolated showers remain possible on Monday as the upper level low
migrates over Lake Superior with weak shortwave energy continuing to
rotate around the feature, with the most likely areas looking to be
along I-90 in southern MN and in western WI. These will be nothing
more than some nuisance showers with limited thunder potential due
to a slightly cooler airmass and limited instability. Quieter
weather looks to be in store the rest of the week as the upper level
low continues to weak before moving towards the southern Great
Lakes, as northerly flow returns aloft and weak surface high
pressure produces general subsidence across the region. Ensemble
guidance beyond Monday shows very sparse membership producing any
kind of precipitation, and with weak subsidence we are likely
looking at just some fair weather cloud cover. This will also bring
some chances for fog as we radiate efficiently overnight, with dew
points remaining in the low to mid 50s until at least next weekend.
This will make for comfortable weather overall as high temperatures
will stick in the low to mid 70s, with overnight lows falling to dew
points in the low 50s. Not quite into typical Autumn weather quite
yet, with the rest of September looking mild and no airmass shift
expected until we get into October.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
BKN/OVC coverage throughout this duration with mainly VFR decks
though the occasional MVFR/IFR level is possible prior to and
leading up to sunrise. Very sparse precipitation at
initialization, possibly enough to produce a trace, is evident
on KMPX radar mainly east of MSP but have kept the TAFs dry to
start. Best chance for any precipitation looks to come mid-to-
late afternoon for isolated SHRA/TSRA. Though TS cannot be ruled
out, have held mention at SHRA for now due to low chances and
very isolated nature of any possible TS and will let radar
trends and the upcoming KMPX RAOB dictate the need to re-
introduce TS in later TAFs. Model trends do indicate another
round of MVFR ceilings late Sunday night into Monday morning,
possibly fog should enough rain develop, so have introduced that
trend at the tail end of the TAFs.
KMSP...VFR conditions mainly expected throughout this duration,
with the best timing of precip looking to be early-mid evening.
Not expecting TS at this point, but it is a non-zero chance so
there is the chance it could be added to later TAFs.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE-WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
THU-FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...JPC

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion